Analysis
December 22, 2025
Ferrous scrap export market firms at year's end
Written by Stephen Miller
The export market in the Atlantic Basin has seen significant strengthening during Q4 as 2025 comes to a close. The strength has been mainly driven by Turkish buyers, but Italy has also been a contributor.
The increase in pricing for Turkey has been caused by supply concerns from Northern Europe and the UK. Turkish buyers have leaned heavily on shipments from this region before resorting to higher priced US and Canadian suppliers. This has caused a net increase on delivered pricing from both regions.
The highest-priced cargo bought last week was a US-origin cargo of HMS 80/20 at $369.50 per metric ton (mt) CFR with shredded at a $20 premium.
Shortly after this US booking, a comparable Baltic cargo was sold at $367/mt CFR. This would push up future bookings from the US to over $370 with the freight differential.
It is unclear at this point to say how these increased export prices, mainly on shredded, will affect the supplies available for US domestic consumers going into January. US mills are said to be trying to limit January prices increases to $20 per gross ton (gt). These increasing export prices are not helping this.
Regarding freight, SMU spoke with North American export manager who said freight to Turkey and other Mediterranean destinations from the US East Coast have increased into the low $40s after dropping briefly into the high $30s per mt. This has continued to bolster prices with no real benefit to the sellers. As supply wanes while winter weather persists, it will only pressure prices upward.
Turkish steelmakers made several purchases of billets in the low $460s earlier in the month. However, those prices have risen lately to where they are no better than using scrap.
Turkey has also been continually buying Russian pig iron at bargain basement prices given the sanctions on this raw material. Through October 2025, Turkey has imported just under 1.5 million mt of Russian pig iron, which is more than double the imports in 2024 during the same period, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK).
This has decreased scrap needs to a certain extent and has resulted in controlling costs to keep Turkish steel prices competitive on the world markets.
On the US West Coast, there have been few changes. The container prices for HMS to Taiwan are stuck a few dollars on either side of $300/mt CFR CY Taiwan. Other traditional outlets for bulk cargoes in the Far East and Southern Asia are not workable. This has resulted in continued sales to Turkey via the Panama Canal route.
