SMU Scrap Survey: Current Sentiment rises, Future Sentiment stable

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap continued to climb this month, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey. However, the Future Sentiment Index remained unchanged.

Current Sentiment Index

SMU’s Current Sentiment Index for scrap increased seven points to +73 in January over December. This is the highest level since it stood at +74 in July.

Future Sentiment Index

SMU’s Future Sentiment Index for scrap stayed level at +84 this month. This is off two points from a 2025 high of +86 back in March of last year.

What’s going on?

The increase in current scrap sentiment can be tied to seasonal factors and increased positive sentiment expressed by the steel sector.

Scrap market prices generally move up in January, as both declining scrap flows and year-end adjustments to steel mill scrap inventories contribute to optimism. Add to this optimism heard from steelmakers and the increase in scrap sentiment is not surprising.

Indeed, this sentiment turned out to be justified as ferrous scrap moved up $20-30 per gross ton (gt) for January shipment.

Respondent comments:

“Not enough Shred/HMS to meet demand.”

“Busheling overhang.”

“Overhang of prime scrap.”

About SMU’s Scrap Sentiment

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices mirror the Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices in our flat-rolled steel survey. They are diffusion indices: readings above 50 indicate a more bullish outlook, while readings below 50 indicate a more bearish one.

Sentiment is only one of the indicators we measure. Our scrap survey, like our steel survey, is available only to premium members. If you would like to upgrade from executive to premium, please contact SMU account executive Luis Corona at luis.corona@crugroup.com. If you’re interested in participating in our scrap survey, please reach out to david@steelmarketupdate.com.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.