Analysis
January 23, 2026
Global steel output falls to 2-year low in December
Written by David Schollaert
The total amount of raw steel produced around the world slipped 0.4% from November to an estimated 139.6 million metric tons (mt) in December, according to the World Steel Association (worldsteel) data. This marks the lowest monthly production in two years.
On a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis through December, annual production has averaged 149.8 million mt per month over the last year, down 2.2% from the same period one year prior (see Figure 1). Up until September, annual output had generally hovered between 152 million and 154 million mt for nearly three years, similar to pre-pandemic levels.
December’s daily production rate was 4.50 million mt per day, down 3.6%, and the lowest total since December 2023. Over the last year, daily production was as high as 5.37 million mt in March. At December’s rate, annualized global production would total approximately 1.64 billion mt (see Figure 2), one of the lower rates recorded in recent years.
Seasonal trends
Steel production is highly seasonal, with output typically strongest in the spring months and weaker in the second half of the year. Annual comparisons can help see past seasonal variations. Figure 3 shows the year-over-year (y/y) growth rates for total global production and for China and the rest of the world (ROW) combined.
December’s output was 3.7% lower than the same month in 2024, marking the fourth straight month of negative annual growth. ROW production saw growth for the seventh month in a row (up 3.5% y/y). China’s annual growth rate was negative for the ninth straight month, at -10.3%.
Regional breakdown
China accounted for 48.9% of global production in December, producing 68.2 million mt (see Figure 4). Down 2.4% from November, this is the lowest production rate since December 2023. Chinese output has averaged 80.3 million mt per month across the past year.
In December, China’s share of global steel production slipped below the 50% market for the first time since November 2021.
ROW steel output rose 1.7% to 71.4 million mt in December, the second-best total in 2025, only behind 73.7 million mt produced in March. ROW production has averaged 70.1 million mt per month over the past year.
Top-producing countries
India maintained its position as the second-largest steel producer in December, accounting for 11% of global output. Other significant producers included the United States and Japan, each at 5%; Russia, and South Korea, each at 4%. They were followed by Turkey at 3%, while Iran, Germany, and Brazil were each at 2%.
Comparing year-to-date (YTD) output by country with the same period of 2024 reveals modest shifts in market share. In the first 11 months of 2025, German production was down 9% compared with the same period last year. Russia declined 5%, and China, South Korea, and Japan each fell 4%. India was the outlier, with YTD production up 10%.
