Analysis
February 3, 2026
Ferrous scrap export market sees growth
Written by Stephen Miller
The export market from the US and Canada has held firm, while slightly strengthening ahead of the domestic buying for February shipment.
In our last export update, SMU reported a US sale to Turkey at $376 per metric ton (mt) CFR for HMS 80/20. Prices were expected to rise to the $380 level, but this never materialized due to the availability of lower-priced cargoes from Europe in the range of $369/mt CFR.
There was a US cargo sold as HMS 90/10 at $381/mt. However, since then the highest priced sale for HMS 80/20 from the US was at $377.50/mt done last week.
A Canadian cargo was also reportedly sold to Turkey. It contained 50% shredded and 50% HMS 95/5 at a combined price of $390/mt CFR, which, if true, would not bring the price of HMS 80/20 to the $380 level.
Besides Turkey, other consuming countries have been active in the export market. Egypt has purchased at least one cargo and Mexico has as well. Italy has also been a consistent buyer since demand there has grown due to their advanced transition to EAF melting.
Outlook?
So, where do we go from here? It looks like scrap will continue to rise as the North American domestic market looks to strengthen in February. The weather is not looking very cooperative in the near future. The European sector does not look any weaker, especially with the strengthening of the Euro versus the US dollar.
Regarding Turkey, the prices of rebar have weakened slightly and with scrap remaining firm, billets from Asian sources are starting to make more sense, at least to some degree. It is estimated billets could be available at around $480 MT CFR Turkey. This could put a small dent into imported scrap demand in Turkey.
The maritime freights from the US East Coast have increased from the low $30s to the high $30s over the last two weeks. This reflects increases in transatlantic commerce in other bulk commodities as well as scrap. If freights continue to rise, it could make US domestic prices more attractive to scrap exporters.
One export source has told SMU US export offers for 80/20 are now at least $380/mt CFR Turkey. But it looks like any further offers may wait for the domestic market settlements to finalize, perhaps as early as this week.
On the US West Coast, containerized HMS 80/20 has improved to prices that are more realistic. They had been hovering either side of $300/mt CFR Taiwan over the last two months, but now have risen to $313, according to sources in California. Shredded scrap in this region, which is in excess of local demand, has either been shipped in bulk to Turkey with HMS or by rail into domestic mills to the East.
