Analysis
February 6, 2026
Dodge: Nonres slips in January, data centers remain a bright spot
Written by David Schollaert
The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) fell 6.2% in January to 272.7, retreating from December’s downwardly revised reading of 291.0, according to the latest data released by Dodge Construction Network.
The decline signaled a moderation in nonresidential planning activity after a strong finish in 2025. Commercial planning also declined, down 7.2% to a reading of 358.2 for the month, while institutional planning eased 4.4% to 198.6 vs. December.
“Planning momentum cooled in January across most commercial and institutional sectors,” said Sarah Martin, associate director of forecasting at Dodge Construction Network.
And while data center projects remain a driver, Martin added that “after elevated activity in late 2025, most nonresidential sectors are now easing into a more sustainable growth pattern.”
DMI reports 35 projects valued at $100 million or more entered into the planning phase in January.
Commercial activity
Commercial planning weakened across nearly all categories in January, reflecting a broader recalibration after several months of heightened activity.
Most commercial sectors posted declines, including office, warehouse, and hotel planning, the report said.
Retail was the lone commercial segment to show improvement.
Despite the monthly pullback, commercial planning remains up 26% vs. last year, or 17% higher when data centers are excluded. The results underscore the outsized role of hyperscale and colocation facilities in the current construction cycle.
Data centers continue to anchor commercial activity and highlight the sector’s shift toward digital infrastructure.
Institutional activity
Institutional planning also softened in January, with several key segments posting declines.
Education, healthcare, and public buildings all saw reduced planning activity. While recreational and religious facilities were the only categories to expand.
Even with the monthly dip, institutional planning remains 34% higher vs. January 2025. The gains are largely highlighted by continued investment in defense infrastructure and life‑sciences facilities.
Each month, Dodge Construction Network releases its DMI, based on the three-month moving average of nonresidential projects entering planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending by 12-18 months.
