Heating and cooling equipment shipments rebound through December

Following November’s nine-year low, heating and cooling equipment shipments rebounded 19% in December, according to the latest figures released by the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Historically, shipments are strongest in the early summer months and weakest around the turn of the year because they are impacted by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes.

December shipments recovered to a four-month high of 1.58 million units, 2% higher than the same month one year prior (Figure 1, left). Shipments of water heaters, warm-air furnaces, and air conditioners/heat pumps all increased month over month (m/m), an across-the-board rise not seen since March 2025.