Global steel output recovers to 6-month high in January

The total amount of raw steel produced around the world recovered 5.5% from December to an estimated 147.3 million metric tons (mt) in January, according to World Steel Association (worldsteel) data. This marks the highest monthly production in six months.

On a 12-month moving average (12MMA) basis through January, annual production has averaged 148.9 million mt per month over the last year, down 2.7% from the same period one year prior (see Figure 1). Up until September, annual output had generally hovered between 152 million and 154 million mt for nearly three years, similar to pre-pandemic levels.

January’s daily production rate was 4.60 million mt, up 2.2% but still the second-lowest total since December 2023. Over the last year, daily production was as high as 5.37 million mt in March. At January’s rate, annualized global production would total approximately 1.68 billion mt (see Figure 2), one of the lower rates recorded in recent years.

Seasonal trends

Steel production is highly seasonal, with output typically strongest in the spring months and weaker in the second half of the year. Annual comparisons can help see past seasonal variations. Figure 3 shows the year-over-year (y/y) growth rates for total global production and for China and the rest of the world (ROW) combined.

January’s output was 6.5% lower than the same month in 2025, marking the fifth straight month of negative annual growth. ROW production saw growth for the eighth month in a row (up 2.6% y/y). China’s annual growth rate was negative for the tenth straight month, at -13.8%.

Regional breakdown

China accounted for 51.1% of global production in January, producing 75.3 million mt (see Figure 4). Up 10.4% from December, this is the highest production rate since August. Chinese output has averaged 78.6 million mt per month across the past year.

In January, China’s share of global steel production exceeded 50% after dropping below that mark in November and December.

ROW steel output rose 0.8% to 72 million mt in January, the second-best total in the past 12 months, only behind 73.7 million mt produced last March. ROW production has averaged 70.3 million mt per month over the past year.

Top-producing countries

India maintained its position as the second-largest steel producer in January, accounting for 10% of global output. Other significant producers included the United States and Japan, each at 5%; South Korea and Russia, each at 4%. They were followed by Turkey, Germany, Brazil, and Iran, each at 2%.

Comparing year-to-date (YTD) output by country with the same period of 2025 reveals modest shifts in market share. In the first month of 2025, Chinese production was down 14% compared with the same period last year. Russia was down 7%, Brazil was down 1%, and Japan was down 0.5%. India was the outlier, with YTD production up more than 10%.

David Schollaert

David Schollaert is deputy editor-in-chief for Steel Market Update. David joined SMU after more than a decade in the metals and mining industry in a myriad of different roles. Much of his early experience and expertise were within the coverage and analysis of steel-making raw materials and served previously as senior editor of the CRU Prices Service. Most recently, however, before his return to market analysis, David held roles as a metals buyer and an operations manager for raw material suppliers. He can be contacted at david@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-720-1008.