Analysis
February 27, 2026
US scrap market digging out from bad winter
Written by Stephen Miller
The US scrap market is looking to emerge from a bad winter that has affected both inbound and outbound flows of material since December.
However, winter weather has not ebbed in all regions as of yet. The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic areas are still digging out of a generational snowfall and have lost two weeks of normal activity, according to a source in these areas.
Looking ahead to March, opinions about prices are fairly uniform in that prices should remain even next month. The majority are saying “soft” sideways and a minority are saying “strong’ sideways.
Sources in the Central districts of Pennsylvania and Ohio are predicting a sideways movement in March. Most shippers are still behind on their February orders. The weather has improved but snow is still in the forecast. There are reports of slow rail service and a shortage of trucking. Inbound scrap flows have improved but are still below normal levels.
A source in the Midwest district, including Chicago and areas to the west, believes the market will trade “strong” sideways. He sees better demand from Chicago area consumers coupled with increased demand from a Canadian steelmaker. He thinks shredded prices could possibly rise a bit in some specific locations, but sideways should suffice for the main market.
One point of concern is the notice of the closure of the Lockport Lock on the Illinois River from March 31 through May 19. This will stop Chicago’s direct connection with the Mississippi River for shipments of scrap to mills downriver and shipment of northbound raw materials, like pig iron into the Chicago area during this time.
Shippers are already planning to truck ferrous scrap to loading areas south of the closure and load barges there. Of course, this will increase their costs. According to our source in logistics, the Illinois and Ohio River are opened to traffic now. The Mississippi above St. Louis is planning their normal resumption of traffic in March.
SMU spoke with a scrap executive in the South who said he thinks the market will go sideways in March, but “it will be a fight.” He said although the price of steel is up and scrap demand looks better, mills may attempt to buy cheaper. He added all his locations are behind on February orders and they will spill into March.
There have been no order cancelations as of time of publication. He went on to say it would be a poor timing to disrupt the flow of scrap, which is regaining the traction it lost earlier in the year.
