Analysis
March 17, 2026
US ferrous scrap market still affected by weather
Written by Stephen Miller
The weather is still influencing the recycled metals market as we head into spring, sources say.
What started out early this month as a “down $20-30 per gross ton (gt)” prediction for April scrap has morphed into a “soft sideways.”
SMU spoke with sources in various regions to get a feel for current sentiment.
We spoke with a source in the Ohio/Pennsylvania district who said he has not seen obsolescent flows restored to pre-winter levels yet. This, coupled with good demand at the mills and continued weather-related problems, may prevent scrap prices from their overdue seasonal decline.
He commented he just can’t see how shredded feed has increased enough in March to allow for an abundance of shredded to be produced.
The source added rail freights have increased and service has deteriorated. This may stunt the amount of shredded available to interior steelmakers supplied by export terminals located on the East Coast.
However, a mill source in the Central district said he believe the lack of export activity and the rising ocean freights will continue to allow scrap from the East Coast to supply inland mills.
This will allow domestic mills to push prices on obsolescent material downward. He does not think there will be aggressively large reductions in price since steel prices are consistently high and steelmakers are busy. He added that busheling could trade sideways, while shredded and P&S could trade down modestly.
He concluded by saying, “The conundrum will occur when mills try to push the shredded market down, and then try to buy more of it due to the better spread between prime and shred.”
SMU spoke with a scrap industry veteran in the Midwest. He said many yards in the Midwest are short of their March orders. The recent blizzard that impacted Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan this week will limit scrap shipments in and out of the yards for several days adding to the shortage.
There is continued demand from a Canadian mill for material, which should flow from the region. Therefore, he sees #1 busheling and bundles trading sideways and shredded and cut grades down somewhat, but not much.
Heading into the Southern districts, we see a similar situation after we spoke to a scrap executive there. He thinks the market is still supply-driven. The South has had better weather this month until this week. Although he thinks the market will drop, he has not seen any panic selling by area dealers. He said dealers should “buckle up for a hard landing.”
In our last edition on March 12, I mistakenly reported there was talk of a cargo of pig iron sold to the US at $450-52/mt CFR (meaning delivered to US Port). The price basis actually was $450-52/mt FOB South Brazil. Since then, SMU has confirmed a cargo was indeed sold to the US at $450/mt FOB with a freight cost of about $30/mt. An additional cargo was rumored sold to a Mexican consumer.
