SMU Survey: Current, Future Sentiment Indices slip

SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices edged down this week, according to our most recent survey data.

Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and three to six months down the road. The responses are used to calculate our Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, metrics tracked since 2008.

Current Sentiment

Current Sentiment dropped five points to +64 this week (Figure 1) vs. two weeks earlier. Recall that Sentiment ticked as high as +73 at the end of April. Since then, it’s fallen nearly 10 points.

Future Sentiment

Future Sentiment slipped one point from our previous survey to +67. (Figure 2). This index had rebounded by eight points in our previous survey but has since eased.

What respondents are saying:

“Just need to find competitive supply.”

“We will rock and roll in Q2 and Q3. … But we fear the pullback.”

“Domestic push helps our logistics side of the business.”

“Need imported steel.”

“Some unknown unknowns out there.”

“As long as trade tariffs and barriers don’t increase, we can try to work with current levels.”

“Very hard to project.”

“’Good,’ but that is banking on HRC pricing retreating.”

“We will do our best to pass along these metal increases. That will be critical for our long-term success.”

Sentiment trends

To better highlight trends, Sentiment can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth out short-term fluctuations.

The Current Sentiment 3MMA increased to +65.74 vs. +64.61 previously (Figure 3, left).

Meanwhile the Future Sentiment 3MMA rose to +64.45, up from +62.66 in the prior survey (Figure 3, right).

About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index

The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to participate in our survey, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.

Ethan Bernard

Ethan Bernard is managing editor for Steel Market Update. He previously worked for American Metal Market as a copy editor in the New York office for two years, starting in 2008. Later, he copy edited AMM’s monthly magazine on a freelance basis from 2015 until 2017. With experience in financial copywriting and textbook publishing, he holds a BA in Comparative Literature from UC Berkeley, and an MFA in Creative Writing from New York University. He can be reached at ethan@steelmarketupdate.com or 724-759-7871.