Analysis
June 16, 2026
July ferrous scrap market looking even with June
Written by Stephen Miller
The scrap market seems firm as we go into the midsummer month of July without too many changes from June.
The June market settled easily sideways without much unnecessary debate. July is usually a fairly uneventful month historically. However, July can see a lessening of industrial scrap flows brought on by vacation schedules, automotive retooling, and the July 4th holiday break. This may affect demand, but the fear this year is the effect on supply given the generally improved melt rate.
The main change in market dynamics is the export market from the US East Coast. After a lull in purchases of deep-sea cargoes from both the EU and North America, Turkish steelmakers have waited out sellers in Northern Europe and have successfully driven prices down between $6-13 per metric ton (mt) for HMS 80/20.
However, it is questionable if the suppliers in the US and Canada will go along with this price decline in seaborne cargoes with demand in their domestic markets still vibrant.
SMU spoke with a steel mill source who predicted “material will continue to find its way inland and domestic consumers will swallow it up.”
He continued, “Pricing on the coast may come off, but inland material will stay flat.”
Also, he does not rule out an increase in prime grades if generation falls in July.
Another source in the Chicago and Upper Midwest districts said busheling is already experiencing increased demand, especially considering the price of pig iron.
This is not only occurring at steel mills but the large foundries in this region are attempting to use more busheling and less pig iron.
“This comes at the expense of mill demand,” he said.
He also projected if busheling becomes short, it could increase the demand for shredded, although he declined to predict a rise in price.
SMU contacted a processor in the South, who said obsolescent scrap flows in June have not tapered off at all vs. May levels.
He said industrial scrap flows may be less, but there is no panic about it right now. However, many are eyeing the pig iron market with some apprehension. As far as a prediction, he is guessing “strong sideways.”
