Canada
June 17, 2026
Canada’s steel output falls 15% in May as US tariffs reshape trade flows
Written by Laura Miller
Canada’s steel production dropped sharply in May, falling 15% year over year and running 14% lower year-to-date, according to Earth-i’s Savant Global Monitoring Index. May’s production totaled just under 900,000 metric tons.
The y/y and YTD declines follow the 2025 Section 232 universal 50% tariff and the 2026 updates on derivative steel. These measures sharply reduced exports to the US, with Canadian shipments falling 31% in 2025. They are down “a whopping” 55% YTD through March 2026, Earth-i’s report says, citing US International Trade Administration data.
“However, the impact of the US tariffs on Canada’s overall steel production has been less dramatic than might have been anticipated, so far,” Earth-I says, noting an uneven impact across mills.
Algoma Steel is the main driver of the national decline. About half of its products used to go to the US. Algoma shut its blast furnaces in January 2026. Its EAF units are ramping up but remain well below past levels.
Other producers are holding up better, Earth-I says.
ArcelorMittal Dofasco is up 3% YTD. Long-term automotive contracts in Ontario continue to support its flat-rolled volumes.
Stelco’s flat-rolled Lake Erie Works, owned by Cleveland-Cliffs, has shifted further toward domestic buyers. The move has helped lift its estimated YTD output by 9%.
Meanwhile, ArcelorMittal Montreal is down about 8% YTD. The plant sells long products into Eastern Canada’s construction and infrastructure markets.
Canada’s outlook remains challenging under the latest Section 232 updates. Export-reliant producers such as Algoma face the most pressure. Mills with strong domestic anchors—Dofasco, Stelco, and Montreal—remain comparatively protected, Earth-i said.
None of the steelmakers mentioned in this article responded to an SMU request for comment.
Earth-i is a geospatial intelligence company based in London. Its Savant platform uses satellite data collected and analyzed with advanced algorithms derived from AI and machine learning.
