Canada
June 23, 2026
Don’t miss our June 24 Community Chat with Timna Tanners
Written by Michael Cowden
Wells Fargo Managing Director Timna Tanners will join Steel Market Update (SMU) and Aluminum Market Update (AMU) for a Community Chat on Wednesday, June 24, at 11 am ET.
The live webinar is free to attend. A recording and the accompanying slide decks will be available only to SMU and AMU subscribers. You can register here.
What we’ll talk about
Hot-rolled (HR) coil prices are above $1,100 per short ton (st), and many think it’s only a matter of time before they breach $1,200/st. Meanwhile, lead times are stretched, and inventories are lean. And so a 2026 rally that has defied nearly all expectations should keep going in the short-term.
But what happens as lead times stretch into Q4? (That’s not far away as you’d think with lead times into September at some mills.) Will we see import volumes rebound? And what happens in 2027 as new sheet mills from Nucor and Ternium come online?
Meanwhile, USMCA talks are well underway. Will we see a reduction in Section 232 tariffs as part of the review of the trade pact? Or is a 50% S232 tariff here to stay? Also worth considering: could we see separate rates for Canada and Mexico or for steel and aluminum?
Speaking of aluminum, how might prices and premiums react to a truce between the US and Iran? And if prices remain elevated, what are the risks of demand destruction and substitution?
And those are hardly the only negotiations going on. How will labor contract talks play out between U.S. Steel and the United Steelworkers (USW) union and Cleveland-Cliffs and the USW ahead of a Sept. 1 deadline? And when it comes to pricing contracts, will mills be able to negotiate lower CRU discounts, or will customers (some fed up with late deliveries) resist?
We’ll take your questions too!
