Analysis
June 30, 2026
Miller on Scrap: After strong first half for market, where will July land?
Written by Stephen Miller
After the domestic scrap market wrapped up the first half of the year on a positive note, will July follow suit?
Quite frankly, the market thus far has been surprisingly favorable for the scrap community. The scrap market in the Detroit area started the year with December busheling at $405 per gross ton (gt) after a $15 bump over November prices. Meanwhile, the price of shredded in December rose $25/gt from November.
In January, prices settled higher with busheling at ~$425/gt and shredded at ~$430/gt. The market continued to strengthen in February and did not drop until April after a hard winter.
But that’s where things diverged from the three previous years. The melt rate improved and steelmakers could not continue to drop prices given healthy demand. Today, as we enter the second half, busheling is ~$460/gt and shredded is ~$435/gt in Detroit.
So, what does July and the balance of the year look like?
SMU spoke with a mill buyer in the Great Lakes region. He expects July to be sideways.
He added, “Domestic material will continue moving inland due to the premium price and will keep the domestic market at even par.”
The mill buyer said, “Mill utilization is up, but lack of exports creates plenty of supply.”
A trader in the same region believes sideways is the most likely outcome.
“It sounds like a broken record,” he said, pointing out strong steel prices, extended lead times, a strong mill order book, and the lack of spot tons all contributing to a firm ferrous market.
He cautioned that industrial scrap will be limited and pig iron prices remain firm with uncertainty about tariffs.
The export market is the only weak aspect. If the export market remains weak in the coming months, it could keep the lid on shredded prices in the second half of the year.
A trading source in the Midwest offered the same opinion of the scrap market.
In fact, he does not rule out the possibility of a small move downward for HMS, but less likely for shredded. He also cited issues with pig iron as a potentially bullish indicator for prime grades in the coming months.
In the Southern region, SMU spoke with a scrap processor in Texas to see what the market looks like in the Lone Star State.
He thinks the prices for obsolete scrap, mainly cut grades, could soften by $5-10 per gross ton.
The processor said, “Things in Texas always slow down in July and August.”
He noted that industrial inflows will probably slow over the summer. However, he stopped short of predicting increased pricing.
Another supplier in the Southeast who spoke with SMU told us all of his mill customers have indicated their intention to buy July scrap sideways.
His customers need tons from their local market and have to supplement their needs by “springboarding” material from remote locations in the North at higher prices than local scrap.
Regarding the rest of 2026, he believes the business climate will be “status quo.”
He sees demand remaining strong with a robust steel market. The export market should remain weak, thereby leaving considerable supplies of scrap for domestic use without big price run-ups.
The consensus among players SMU spoke with is the scrap market for July won’t settle until after the holiday weekend.
