AMU
July 2, 2026
Written by Stephanie Ritenbaugh
This piece was first published by Aluminum Market Update (AMU), SMU’s nonferrous sister publication. To learn about AMU, visit their website or sign up for a free trial.
The recent retreat in aluminum prices has been a “head scratcher” as the Iran war continues to disrupt output from an important production region.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
Recycler forward expectations swung toward oversupply in September as inventory drawdowns eased and export demand lost August’s improving responses.
Kibar Americas said production has started at its aluminum plant in Fairmont, W.Va., where it will manufacture products for the HVAC, packaging, automotive and industrial sectors.
China is bumping up against its official primary production capacity limit of 45.3 million metric tons/year, but production can still increase through “capacity creep.”
Automotive aluminum demand is rising as extrusions, sheet, and castings gain ground across vehicle applications and powertrains.