SMU’s July 10 Flat-Rolled Steel Survey results paint a picture of a steel market being squeezed from every direction. Tariffs are holding prices up and giving mills a clear advantage, while manufacturers and traders say the policy is pushing their costs higher.
Aluminum prices have spent the past month pricing in a calmer Middle East, while developments in the Strait of Hormuz have suggested anything but.
The recent retreat in aluminum prices has been a “head scratcher” as the Iran war continues to disrupt output from an important production region.
Iran and the US have signed an agreement to extend the current ceasefire for 60 days. CRU analysts discuss key aspects of the deal.
SMU’s June 12 Flat-Rolled Steel Buyers’ Survey shows a divided steel community on the effects of President Trump’s tariff policies, emerging but uneven signs of reshoring, and near-universal cost pressures tied to the Iran conflict.
US steel buyers report firmer domestic demand, but long lead times, rising freight costs, and geopolitical uncertainty continue to cause caution on imports.
We look at how SMU survey respondents are seeing the effects of Trump's tariffs and the Iran war on business.
Inventories are getting dangerously low. (Sheet stocks are at their lowest point since May 2021!) Lead times remain extended. And mills have few spot tons available. (The ‘a’ word – “allocation” – is being kicked around.)
A panel of steel executives said bolstering trade also protects it from the Iran war and other geopolitical risks.
Chinese major Baosteel will re-evaluate its investment in a steel plate making joint venture in Saudi Arabia because war in the Middle East has added uncertainties to the project, Baosteel Chairman Zou Jixin said.
It's cliche to say it. But spring traditionally brings new hope and green shoots—whether that's looking forward to vacations or increased business activity. While I viscerally share these positive feelings, I can’t help but thinking of three areas where I'm not feeling very hopeful. Namely, the US electrical grid, the national debt, and the Iran war.
Anton Posner, CEO of Mercury Resources, will join Steel Market Update (SMU) and Aluminum Market Update (AMU) for a Community Chat on Thursday, May 14, at 11 am ET.
Over the past few years, the slab market has changed significantly – Iran filled the position previously occupied by Ukraine before the war, Brazilian merchant slab supply fell, and the introduction of CBAM drew more interest into slab imports to the EU.
In a Final Thoughts las week, I asked “Got Steel?” And if you’re looking for spot tons in June, the answer still isn’t obvious.
The flat-rolled steel market looks poised for continued gains despite widespread concerns about higher freight costs stemming from the Iran War, according to SMU's latest steel market survey.
Steel output will carry on in Iran despite repeated US-Israeli air strikes on key industrial sites, including the Mobarakeh and Khuzestan steel companies, according to a senior Iranian industry official.
No doubt, events will scramble the status quo. Meanwhile, the global systems that have prevented major wars for 80 years are sagging.
Military strikes on major aluminum facilities in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain have introduced a new layer of uncertainty into a market that was already operating with limited flexibility.
The world definitely seems like a more dangerous place these days. And, of course, when national security is invoked, the steel industry always plays a key role.
At least two major US plate producers - SSAB Americas and Nucor - plan to increase plate prices by at least $60 per short ton (st).
US manufacturing activity grew for the third straight month in March, according to the latest report from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). March marked the 17th month of overall economic expansion.
Could we see prices continue to inch higher, plateau, and then start to slide back? A lot hinges on whether and how long it takes mills to catch up on orders.
Sheet prices continue to inch higher. And people who once thought hot-rolled coil (HR) prices couldn’t go above $1,000 are now saying $1,100 doesn’t seem out of the question.
The ongoing Middle East conflict, the resurgence of broad-based tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the looming US midterm elections are not isolated developments. Rather, they form a kind of feedback loop in which each issue influences, and is influenced by, the others.
The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has led to higher and more volatile energy prices, and impacts on numerous other commodity markets – in particular fertilizers and aluminum. If disruption to Middle Eastern supply continues, this will have a serious negative impact on the global economy.
The US steel market is already characterized by high prices and tight supplies, and I wouldn't be surprised if prices move higher and supplies get even tighter – at least in the short term.
Chinese steel export prices and Turkish longs export prices increased this week due to higher energy and raw material costs. In India, HR coil exports remained paused amid the Middle East crisis.
With the Iran war approaching its third week, the future course and scope of the conflict remain uncertain. Even so, while the human costs are the most immediate and tragic, the global economic implications have already proven to be significant.
It's been just two weeks since the US and Israel launched a joint attack on Iran. And markets are still in flux as we wade through conflicting messages from the administration on what the goals are when it could be over.
Prices are moving up and lead times moving. And most people expect them to continue to do so for a little while longer, according to our latest survey results. But there is one big wildcard: the Iran war.