Analysis
May 19, 2026
Final Thoughts: Iran war takes a bite out of business
Written by Ethan Bernard
I remember when a handful of change was enough to take to the pump and give you a couple of days of gas. Well, that era is long gone. And, these days, you might be hard-pressed to find a place that takes change in the first place.
The US/Israel conflict with Iran started at the very end of February. A temporary US-Iran ceasefire began in early April. Though negotiations continue, the ceasefire remains tenuous, and the crucial Strait of Hormuz remains blocked.
How crucially important is the Strait for energy? Well, you just need to scroll below to our recent SMU survey question on the implications of the Iran war on business. While 79% responded the conflict was having an impact, 9% answered no, and 12% weren’t sure yet, the comments told a different story.
Many of the comments mentioned the words “fuel,” “freight,” or both. Last week, Nucor maintained its $10-per-short-ton (st) fuel surcharge on plate products, for example.
Getting things from Point A to B has gotten a lot more expensive. We reported yesterday the average US price for regular gasoline stood at $4.52 per gallon as of Monday, May 18, according to the Automobile Association of America (AAA). That’s up from $4.06 a month ago and $3.18 a year ago.
Meanwhile, diesel stands at $5.63 a gallon as of Monday, AAA said. That’s up from $5.57 a month ago and $3.55 a year earlier.
With all the concern regarding fuel and freight costs, we can see logistics is a top-of-mind issue.
While the price at the pump and the Iran war are having an impact, that doesn’t mean the issue of President Trump’s tariffs has gone away. Rather, tariffs and the subject of reshoring have become part of the background music these days. Still, many people have opinions about them.
So let’s take a look at what our survey respondents had to say on these issues.
If your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact info@steelmarketupdate.com.
Is the Iran war having an impact on your business?
Yes
“We have business in the Middle East.”
“Fuel surcharges, supply chain interruptions.”
“Rates, fuel, oil.”
“Higher costs, higher freight, and energy costs.”
“Yes, as everyone is just a little concerned again and feeling the stress and pain at the pump.”
“Diesel/freight prices are driving our costs up.”
“Fuel costs.”
“Foreign-sourced items are in tight supply.”
“Fuel prices have increased to the point where transportation costs eat into your margin.”
“It is a reason for people to increase pricing.”
“Oil increase and increasing surcharges on all freight.”
“Raw material costs and logistics costs increasing.”
“Freight rates are skyrocketing.”
“It seems that the Iran war may be increasing the anxiety and perhaps helping create some panic buying?”
“Big time – in many ways.”
“Lost Gulf products like aluminum.”
Are President Trump’s tariff policies helping your business? Why or why not?
Yes
“Inventory values are maintaining and new capacity should succeed in this environment.”
“It helps us in Texas with the Mexican tariffs as long as tube prices don’t inflate too much.”
“It’s Trump’s tariffs that have caused this price spike, so we have these policies to thank for better margins currently.”
“At this point, I think I would have to say yes.”
“New steel mills being built with new capacity coming on-stream.”
No
“Too much inconsistency.”
“Procuring flat rolled has become increasingly difficult.”
“Creating additional cost impacts.”
“We have significant Canadian competition. They are struggling to remain competitive under the current round of tariffs.”
“Restricting free market environment.”
Unsure
“Hurt on the buy side, help on the sell side.”
“Yes and no.”
Are you seeing evidence of manufacturing reshoring to the US because of Trump’s tariffs?
Yes
“Buy-side requiring made-and-melted.”
“Less foreign steel in the supply chain.”
“A little in auto, appliance, and HVAC.”
“Tariffs have pushed some purchasing back to domestic mills.”
“Slow reshoring, but it is getting better.”
“In almost every industry segment.”
“In some industries, but magnitude of effect is unclear.”
No
“Imports are still lower than US pricing.”
“All talk.”
Unsure
“Too much uncertainty.”
