SMU Survey: Tariff impact uneven, reshoring signals strengthen, Iran conflict drives cost surge

Survey respondents were split on whether Trump’s tariffs are helping their business: 45% said no, 33% said yes, and 22% were unsure (slide 11 below). Those replying ‘yes’ to the tariff policy question have been around a third of total respondents in our last four surveys, the highest readings since we launched this question last year.

Negative responses frequently pointed to higher costs and distorted pricing. One service center participant stated the tariffs are “just raising the price unnecessarily, insulating the domestic mills.” Another said the policies “make for an artificial market.” Several noted regional differences, with one respondent saying the impact “depends on the location of our facility. In the South, yes. North, no.”

Supporters pointed to stronger domestic demand, improved margins, and higher inventory values. Tariffs have “created more demand with fewer imports available,” wrote one respondent. “Inventory values are increasing, and demand is stable to improving,” noted another.

Multiple respondents described a dual effect: “Hurt on the buy side, help on the sell side,” said one service center respondent. “No,” they’re not helping, said another, but “they are not hurting it either. It’s fairly neutral.”

Reshoring: Slow but noticeable movement

Regarding evidence of reshoring, 41% of respondents said yes, they are seeing it; 36% said no; and 23% said it’s too early to say (slide 12). That’s tied for the largest percentage of folks who have seen evidence of reshoring since we started asking this question last year.

Those seeing activity described incremental shifts. One service center source reported “certain customers having more demand for fabricated steel,” while another said reshoring is “minimal on the ground, but plenty of announcements.” Others pointed to sector-specific movement, including “a little in auto, appliance, and HVAC.”

Skeptics highlighted uncertainty and lack of follow-through. “All talk,” one wrote. Another said reshoring would be more visible “if manufacturers had confidence in the stability of tariff rates.”

Iran conflict: Broad cost pressures across supply chain

The Iran conflict is having the clearest impact of the three topics surveyed: 87% said yes, it is impacting them, 10% said no, and 3% were unsure (slide 10). That’s by far the highest percentage of yeses since we started asking this question in April.

Respondents overwhelmingly named higher fuel, freight, and logistics costs. “Fuel cost is real! Freight costs have increased dramatically,” said one service center respondent. “Oil price drives costs for everything we purchase,” commented a manufacturer. Several respondents noted disruptions to imports and shipping routes, with one trader reporting that their offshore suppliers “cannot ship” and a service center saying import orders now require “major logistical changes.”

Others pointed to broader inflationary pressures: “Fuel surcharges… are depressing the market for our products,” said one respondent, and “higher transportation costs” are restricting product reach, commented another.

As one service center buyer summed it up, the conflict has “sent prices higher and more people are nervous about economy and state of our country.”