Analysis
June 11, 2026
Running on empty: Troian warns trucking industry woes may ripple through industry
Written by Kristen DiLandro
Gregg Troian, industry veteran and president of both PGT Trucking and the Board of Directors at the American Transportation Research Institute, cautions that the trucking industry continues to face mounting obstacles.
During SMU’s discussion with Troian, he outlined trucking’s status and warned of the potentially cascading implications to the US freight ecosystem. Because the steel industry relies on trucks to maintain day-to-day operations, mounting challenges to the existing framework, paired with rising fuel costs, threaten to wreak even more havoc on a tight market. In addition to tariff adjustments, global disruptions to trade routes, and overall capacity issues, the steel market may grapple with a new source of uncertainty.
Mainly, the trucking industry finds labor shortages, rising insurance costs, and increased maintenance expenses as the converging factors challenge it to keep freight moving.
Labor shortages
Troian elaborated on causes and conditions limiting driver eligibility. One condition significantly reducing the number of “qualified” drivers includes the federal effort to shutter thousands of so-called driver education programs.
Referred to in the industry as “CDL (commercial driver’s license) mills,” fraudulent driver education programs provided CDLs to unqualified drivers with minimal training. Officially, the drivers carried legitimate CDLs; however, in reality, many CDL holders were improperly trained to handle their vehicles.
While many provided legitimate credentials to students, the graduated drivers paid to be provided education and left without earnestly proving competence in the skills essential to safely operate commercial vehicles. One such competency includes proving English language proficiency.
When the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency began stopping drivers to assess their immigration status, drivers who weren’t able to converse in English (a proficiency requirement for obtaining a CDL) were removed.
A proper driver education program tests a driver’s ability to read and understand highway traffic signs and signals in English, confirms that the driver is able to communicate effectively with Department of Transportation (DOT) officers and safety officials, and ensures that the driver can respond to official inquiries during roadside inspections. The driver’s English proficiency requirement also ensures they can complete required documentation, including inspection reports and driver logs.
On Dec. 1, 2025, US Transportation Secretary Sean P. Duffy announced the DOT would remove ~3,000 CDL training providers from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) Training Provider Registry (TPR). The notice informed another 4,500 training providers that they were on notice due to potential noncompliance.
Additionally, federal transportation authorities are weighing whether hair sample drug testing should replace standard blood testing. Hair sample drug tests have proven to more accurately detect the presence of illicit substances over an extended period.
Therefore, driver candidates with a history of substance use may be disqualified from entering the field. Enhanced detection could rule out otherwise qualified drivers despite their current sobriety status.
Independent contractors, meanwhile, have gained greater leverage in the tight labor market. Troian highlighted increased flexibility for drivers who have more load options to choose from. The steady demand for trucking continues to force carriers to compete for limited capacity. Some trucking companies have become more flexible in response, while others have struggled to secure enough drivers to meet demand.
The short supply of diesel technicians complicates the industry from another angle, explained Troian. ATRI’s data finds that, for technicians aging out of the profession, fewer replacements enter. In addition, efforts for recruiting, training, and retaining talent still aren’t keeping pace with the level of attrition.
Rising insurance rates
Research by ATRI finds liability insurance premium costs soared by 18.6% between 2021 and 2024. The increases amount to ~10.2 cents per mile, outpacing consumer inflation by more than five percentage points. During the same period, heavy-duty truck crash rates actually declined by 2.6%. ATRI found that per-mile liability losses increased by 33.1%, driven in part by growing litigation costs and larger claims settlements.
The burden is particularly acute for smaller carriers, many of which operate on thin margins. ATRI researchers noted that rising insurance expenses have become one of the industry’s most significant financial challenges as fleets continue to navigate a prolonged freight downturn.
Maintenance costs climb
Simultaneously, trucking companies and independent contractors face higher maintenance costs. Troian pointed to higher-cost replacement parts and service repairs, which are typically absorbed by carriers and independent drivers.
Rising expenses caused many carriers to exit the market. Fewer competitors might look like an advantage for existing carriers. However, a shortage of available drivers and rising demand have left carriers struggling to expand their fleets. Bankruptcies and consolidation have severely reduced capacity in some regions.
Diesel prices continue to influence profitability. Adding fuel surcharges offsets the impact, but providing consumers with accurate pricing remains a challenge. Ongoing transportation industry variables create uncertainties that ripple through manufacturing, construction, and industrial supply chains.
For trucking companies, the challenge is clear: move more freight with fewer drivers, higher operating costs, and growing financial risk.
As Troian explained, the industry’s problems are interconnected, and solutions will likely require a combination of workforce development, operational efficiency, and regulatory reform.
