Analysis
August 7, 2026
SMU Survey: Steel Buyer Sentiment Indices remain strongly optimistic
Written by Brett Linton
SMU’s Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices were once again strongly optimistic this week, based on responses collected from steel executives in our latest market survey. Both measures have been historically strong for several months, indicating that buyers are confident in their companies’ prospects today and in the coming months.
Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel industry executives asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. These responses are used to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures we have tracked since our 2008 inception.
Current Sentiment
Current Sentiment increased seven points this week to +72, just one point below the three-year high set in April (Figure 1). Sentiment has remained at historically strong levels for the past four months. This time last year, Current Sentiment was significantly lower at +36.
Future Sentiment
Future Sentiment rose three points to +68 this week, in line with average readings across the last three months (Figure 2). This index has overall trended upward since March, only declining in two other surveys since then. One month ago it touched an 18-month high of +71. One year ago, Future Sentiment registered +50.
What respondents are saying:
“[Excellent current outlook and good future outlook] We have managed to increase volume year to date and we see that trend continuing based on our quoting.”
“[Excellent current outlook and good future outlook] The market is in our favor and we’re making the most of it. We always seem to make the most of any market conditions.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] Higher market prices have improved our results and supported a positive first-half performance. I expect the current positive market trend to continue through the rest of the year.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] Good only because material costs are so dang high. We’d be excellent for sure if HRC shaved off a few hundred bucks a ton! We expect steel pricing to retreat in the 1H, so we’re looking forward to that.”
“[Excellent current outlook and good future outlook] We are starting to settle into the increased demand environment. We’ve been trying to prepare for whatever this market brings in the future. Hopefully we are doing the right things.”
“[Excellent current outlook and fair future outlook] Late mill orders are proving to be a benefit. We always hate the Mongolian reversal.”
“[Good current and future outlooks] As long as data center and construction markets stay strong and import duties remain at 50%.”
“[Fair current and future outlooks] Cannot find sufficient supply.”
“[Poor current and future outlooks] Trading is tough under Section 232, the war, and various AD duties.”
Sentiment trends
Sentiment Indices can be analyzed on a three-month moving average (3MMA) basis to smooth short-term variations and better highlight trends. Both 3MMA Sentiment Indices are at or near their highest levels in over a year.
The Current Sentiment 3MMA registered +67.06 this week, marginally lower than the three-year high of +68.61 seen in late June (Figure 3, left). The Future Sentiment 3MMA increased for the tenth survey in a row, currently at a 17-month high of +68.19 (Figure 3, right).
About the SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index
The SMU Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index measures the attitude of buyers and sellers of flat-rolled steel products in North America. It is a proprietary product developed by Steel Market Update for the North American steel industry. Tracking steel buyers’ sentiment is helpful in predicting their future behavior. View our methodology here. If you would like to be included in our market surveys, please contact us at smu@crugroup.com.
