CRU: How a ‘Super El Niño’ could impact the world economy
There is increasing evidence that the current La Niña weather phenomenon is coming to an end, and that we are quickly moving into an El Niño cycle already in the next few months.
There is increasing evidence that the current La Niña weather phenomenon is coming to an end, and that we are quickly moving into an El Niño cycle already in the next few months.
The May Business Conditions Report issued by the Precision Metalforming Association (PMA) found metalforming manufacturers anticipate stable market conditions for the next three months.
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) eased marginally in April, losing some momentum after moving higher in March.
Sources told SMU they’ve begun considering whether US imports of sheet might benefit the overall market.
Global shipping volatility is tightening its grip on steel supply chains. And the risks are not easing; in fact, they’re escalating, according to Anton Posner, CEO of Mercury Resources.
The Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have sent oil and aluminum prices soaring higher. The impact on steel has been mostly indirect but hardly insignificant – especially when it comes to the costs of moving metal.
The process to reduce Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs for producers in Mexico and Canada garnered mixed reactions from steel and metals’ supply chain advocacy groups.
A panel of steel executives said bolstering trade also protects it from the Iran war and other geopolitical risks.
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) recovered in March, gaining some momentum after a marginal decline in February.
It's cliche to say it. But spring traditionally brings new hope and green shoots—whether that's looking forward to vacations or increased business activity. While I viscerally share these positive feelings, I can’t help but thinking of three areas where I'm not feeling very hopeful. Namely, the US electrical grid, the national debt, and the Iran war.
I attended the SAFE Summit in Washington, D.C., earlier this week. It was an out-of-this world event – and I mean that quite literally. There were serious discussions around building data centers in space.
Anton Posner, CEO of Mercury Resources, will join Steel Market Update (SMU) and Aluminum Market Update (AMU) for a Community Chat on Thursday, May 14, at 11 am ET.
Last week, Steel Market Update and CRU hosted our inaugural VIP Briefing in Chicago ahead of the Scouting America Metals Industry Dinner.
USMCA provides strong support for North American competitiveness. US manufacturing has lost considerable capabilities over the last few decades. “Cheating” by other countries is not the only reason. Nor is it even the most important reason
Core to the negotiations will be the need for a fundamental rebalancing of the relationship between the United States, Mexico, and Canada - especially when it comes to the steel and autos supply chain.
Toyota Motor Corp.’s $1 billion investment in its Kentucky and Indiana plants aims to expand production of aluminum-intensive vehicles, particularly across high-volume models and future battery electric platforms.
If I had to sum it up, I’d say “pain at the pump” is back. AAA says gasoline now averages more than $4 per gallon nationally ($4.08 to be precise) for the first time in for years. Meanwhile, diesel prices average $5.40 per gallon, according to the US Energy Information Administration. That’s up $1.81 per gallon from a year ago.
AMU's March survey results show lead times remaining extended as supply tightness persists, even as import competitiveness declines and logistics costs increase.
North American auto assemblies gained ground in February, up more than 8% vs. January, but still down more than 4% year on year (y/y), according to GlobalData.
The ongoing Middle East conflict, the resurgence of broad-based tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the looming US midterm elections are not isolated developments. Rather, they form a kind of feedback loop in which each issue influences, and is influenced by, the others.
The US steel market is already characterized by high prices and tight supplies, and I wouldn't be surprised if prices move higher and supplies get even tighter – at least in the short term.
With the Iran war approaching its third week, the future course and scope of the conflict remain uncertain. Even so, while the human costs are the most immediate and tragic, the global economic implications have already proven to be significant.
The market has been naturally fixated on the disruption of aluminum exports from the Persian Gulf. However, there is another shipping problem that also may have repercussions on the movement of manufactured goods originating in the Pacific. That is extreme congestion at the Panama Canal.
Pace Industries plans to close two Muskegon die-casting plants following news of the planned shutdown of its Arkansas facility.
The American Metals Supply Chain Institute (AMSCI) said increasing insurance premiums, potential vessel diversions, and contractual risk evaluations began in the global freight market as geopolitical conflict escalates in the Persian Gulf region.
Crude-oil and natural-gas prices spiked, metals opened higher and some fertilizer benchmarks climbed after the US and Israel launched a “pre-emptive” strike on Iran, killing the supreme leader and plunging the region into chaos.
I grew up in Belo Horizonte, the capital of Minas Gerais in southeastern Brazil, surrounded by the Serra do Curral mountains, and a culture steeped in mining and vast iron ore reserves.
Entering 2026, tin has led a frenzied base metal rally during a historic phase for commodities. Frothy market conditions, driven by volatile investor positioning and shifting macro risk sentiment, pushed several metals—including tin—to record highs in January, before a sharp correction in February.
North American auto assemblies recovered in January, up nearly 12% vs. December, though down more than 2% year on year (y/y), according to GlobalData.
SMU’s Mill Order Index (MOI) rose again in January, maintaining momentum from the month prior. The increase came as service center intake levels ticked up, supported by a jump in shipments, according to our latest service center inventories data.