Analysis

March 22, 2026
Leibowitz on Trade: How war, tariffs, and politics interact
Written by Lewis Leibowitz
The intersection of geopolitics, trade policy, and domestic politics has rarely been as tightly intertwined as it is today. The ongoing Middle East conflict, the resurgence of broad-based tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, and the looming US midterm elections are not isolated developments. Rather, they form a kind of feedback loop in which each issue influences, and is influenced by, the others. How these factors interplay will profoundly affect the world we live in for years to come.
The Middle East conflict has exerted strong pressure on global markets, particularly but not exclusively energy. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important gateways for global energy, particularly oil and liquified natural gas. Because ships carrying these cargoes are both valuable and vulnerable, opening the Strait to shipping requires either a cessation of conflict or a major effort to strip Iran of the means to endanger shipping. The impact of the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz has led to US gasoline prices increasing 40% in a month.

