Market Data
October 12, 2026
Written by Laura Miller
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) forecasts flat steel demand in 2026. Contraction in China and disruption in the Gulf region offset growth in India and other markets, including the US. Global demand is expected to rise slightly in 2027.
US steel exports fell 3% from July to August, continuing the decline from June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low for over a year and remain weak in comparison to volumes seen across 2022-2024. August trade was down 2% compared to the same month of 2025, 25% lower than August 2024, 29% lower than August 2023, and 21% lower than August 2022.
Base metals had a mixed week. Tin lost almost 4% on the week, finishing at $53,000/ton. Prices dropped to a low of $51,259/ton at one point. Aluminum was another loser, off by about 1.6% on the week. Investors are expecting more aluminum supply going forward, especially out of China and Indonesia. Copper prices tacked on 1.1%. They have now recovered more than half of the $700/ton loss sustained (over the course of a week) following reports/rumors in mid-September that US tariffs on refined copper imports might not proceed after all.
Every month, SMU polls scrap market participants on a variety of topics—including prices, business conditions, and what they think the future holds. We received the data and comments below last week, before the October market had entirely settled. And as it turns out, survey respondents mostly got it right. Broadly speaking, all survey respondents said demand was stable (56%) or improving (44%). None reported a decline in demand. We haven't seen this many people reporting improving demand since February.
SMU’s October ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys