Category: SMU

The midterms are over, and Democrats will control both chambers of Congress in January. In this space last week, Lewis Leibowitz predicted that President Trump's tariffs, including Section 232, may not last much longer. We disagree. To be sure, the new Congress will change trade policy. It will hold hearings, write bills, and almost certainly revisit the trade dispute with Canada. But the foundation of US trade policy is unlikely to be disturbed. Section 232 and Section 301 are established, court-tested authorities that both parties have used. They are also working.

SMU’s Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices increased this week, according to our latest market survey.   Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

Brazilian miner and steelmaker Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (CSN) increased steel production in the third quarter, but lower overseas shipments and a less favorable domestic product mix weighed on its quarterly results. The company also said renewed import pressure limited further price pass-throughs.

The spread between domestic hot-rolled (HR) coil and prime scrap prices continued to widen this month, the 14th consecutive increase. SMU’s hot-rolled (HR) coil price averaged $1,375 per short ton (st) this week, up $25/st from last week and a $95/st increase from a month earlier.

US shipments of heating and cooling equipment slipped in September for a third consecutive month, according to the latest data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI). Shipments declined 2.6% month on month (m/m) in September, after having fallen 10% m/m in August. The monthly pace marks the third-slowest shipment rate year to date. Historically, shipments are strongest in early summer and weakest around the turn of the year, driven by seasonal air conditioner and heat pump volumes. AHRI's data shows September shipments totaled 1,687,240 units, down 2.6% m/m but up 7.7% year over year (y/y) (Figure 1, left). From August to September, shipments of warm air furnaces, A/C, and heat pumps declined, while water heater shipments rose. Compared with a year earlier, only air conditioners and heat pump shipments were higher.

Could two new steel projects signal a new direction in the marketplace? Both Mesabi Metallics’ recently announced steel facility in Iowa and the Hyundai-POSCO’s proposed mill in Louisiana are major undertakings. You don’t spitball a major steel mill and then start producing the next day. From initial concept to site selection and on up to the first melt, there is a labyrinth of permitting, planning, and construction to navigate before the first heat.

Ferrous scrap prices rose in November across all grades SMU tracks, though prices varied widely by region. “Marketwise, we saw disparate market movements between regions in the November trade, which wrapped up earlier this week,” one source told SMU. “It was a mixed bag, depending on the region and grade.” The source added that export pricing also rose over the course of last week, “but much less than the domestic market.”  Demand from US mills is strong and “there is probably more lift to be expected in the market between now and the January trade," he continued.

Lead times for sheet and plate products continue to extend in a US steel market still in the grip of a historic supply squeeze, according to the latest SMU steel market survey data. Average lead times now extend into late January 2027, with some mills not quoting availability until mid/late February. Lead times for all sheet products except Galvalume stand at their highest point since the post-Covid demand snapback in 2021. And plate lead times have exceeded their 2021 peak, repeatedly setting new record highs in our data series over the past month. (We started collecting plate lead time data in 2018. Our sheet lead time figures go back to 2012.)

The results of the latest Steel Market Update (SMU) flat-rolled market survey are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in, look under the Data tab for Market Reports, and there you will find the Flat-Rolled Survey Results section. Previous survey results are also available on that page. If you need help accessing these results, or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

Only 5% of steel buyers surveyed by SMU this week said mills were willing to negotiate lower prices for new spot orders, suggesting mills retain substantial pricing leverage in a tight market. The share rose two percentage points from our previous survey two weeks ago but was nine points below the mid-October reading. This week's rate is just slightly higher than our previous survey when the negotiation rate fell to 3% — its lowest level since July 2021. Negotiation rates have trended downward all year as steel prices have continued to climb.

Steel production has been suspended at a facility of Turkish steelmaker Habas following a deadly explosion, a source told SMU. SMU spoke with a source in Turkey who provided some further information after the incident at the mill in Aliaga, Turkey, occurred on Monday. (For background on the incident, click here.)

In this week's Market Chatter, steel buyers point to tight supply and steady demand as reasons sheet prices could keep rising, with many expecting HRC to reach $1,400-1,449 per short ton in two months. Views on when the rally will peak are mixed, with some anticipating further increases while others mention softening demand and political uncertainty. Respondents also disagree on tariffs' impact. They say reshoring is generating activity but has yet to translate consistently into demand.

The volume of finished steel that entered the US market eased 1% from August to September and held near a historically strong rate, according to SMU’s analysis of recently released Department of Commerce and American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) data. Referred to as “apparent steel supply,” this measure is calculated by combining domestic mill shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US exports. It can be used as a proxy for domestic steel demand. Supply totaled 9.11 million short tons (st) in September, the fourth-highest rate recorded in the past four years. Supply has remained historically strong since May, when it surpassed the 9 million st mark for the first time in four years

Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.

US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.

November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.

SMU’s Current and Future Scrap Sentiment Indices slipped in November, according to the latest data from our ferrous scrap survey. SMU’s Current Scrap Sentiment Index dropped four points to +84 this month. The index last touched +84 back in July. The low for this year so far was in January when Current Sentiment stood at +73.

SMU’s November ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members. After logging in at steelmarketupdate.com, visit the Pricing and Analysis tab and look under the “survey results” section for Ferrous Scrap Survey results. Past scrap survey results are also available under that selection. If you need help accessing the survey results or if your company would like to have your voice heard in our future surveys, contact smu@crugroup.com.

There has been an upsurge in Turkish deep-sea scrap buying over the last week for December shipment. Prices paid increased but not as much as the trade expected.cDuring the last week, Turkey-based steelmakers bought at least seven cargoes, largely from the UK and Northern European suppliers, while virtually shunning higher priced US scrap. The initial wave of sales of HMS 80/20 ranged from $395-$398.50 per metric ton (mt) on a CFR basis. This equated to an average increase of less than $5/mt. The was one cargo bought later at $401/mt from this region.

On Monday and Tuesday of this week, SMU polled steel buyers on an array of topics, ranging from market prices, demand, and inventories to tariffs, imports, and evolving market events. We are sharing a selection of the comments we received below, in each buyer’s own words. Before diving in, we reviewed all the responses collected and compiled these key takeaways: Respondents overwhelmingly anticipate further increases. Buyers cite limited supply, mill delays, low inventories, and steady-to-strong demand. Most say demand is generally stable to improving, with some purchasing driven by fears of higher prices or unavailable material rather than stronger underlying consumption. Most respondents report faster inventory turnover, while shortages are constraining sales and, in some cases, prompting customer allocations. Buyers increasingly see imports as a way to secure scarce material, though domestic-origin requirements, delivery timing, and pricing risks remain obstacles.

Sheet prices soared this week as market participants increasingly predict that the strong market characterizing 2026 will stretch well into 2027. And with extremely limited spot availability, mills that have spot tons to sell are charging a significant premium, they said. The result: Sheet prices saw their highest week-over-week gains since March 2025, according to SMU's pricing records. That's when President Trump shocked the market by expanding Section 232 tariffs to cover traditional US allies such as Canada, Mexico, and the EU.

Most SMU scrap sources are predicting a stronger scrap market for November. The increase in prices is generally thought be $20-30 per gross ton (gt) in most districts. However, there are differences of opinion about the upcoming price settlements. SMU spoke with a trading source in the Great Lakes region who told us mills in the Eastern Ohio and Western Pennsylvania regions are short on scrap. At least one buyer is offering to buy scrap at a $30/gt increase from October levels. He said most dealers have elected to wait to see where things settle before making commitments.

Metallus reported improved year-over-year profitability in the third quarter, but expects seasonal softness and planned maintenance to weigh on fourth-quarter results. The specialty metals producer pointed to continued demand and a new defense contract as supports for growth.

The US Department of Commerce has determined sizable dumping rates against Austria, Taiwan, and the United Arab Emirates in the trade case investigating imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG). Recall the dumping investigations and a companion subsidy investigation were launched in April at the request of the US OCTG Manufacturers Association (USOMA), U.S. Steel, and the United Steelworkers.

Construction has been an uneven market over the last year, but data centers have been a bright spot. Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) sat down with SMU Editor-in-Chief Michael Cowden last week for a Community Chat. In a far-ranging conversation, Simonson spoke on the current state of construction and wider issues in the economy. (For SMU Premium subscribers, you can watch replay of the entire interview here.)

Buyers in SMU’s latest Flat-Rolled Steel Survey increasingly expect hot-rolled (HR) coil prices to keep climbing into year-end and beyond. But competitive import offers have not yet eased concerns about tight availability: most surveyed manufacturers and service centers said foreign suppliers were quoting competitive prices, while many service centers said they were still buying imports to secure additional tons. As of Tuesday, Oct. 27, current spot prices for HR coil range from $1,280 per short ton (st) to $1,330/st, averaging $1,305/st, according to SMU’s market survey. Looking two months ahead, 41% of respondents to our Oct. 28 survey expected HR coil prices to be $1,300-1,349 per short ton (st) in two months, down from 47% in our survey two weeks earlier.

In this week's Steel Market Chatter, we explore manufacturing and service center buyers' comments about demand, prime scrap, the Iran War, and expectations for Section 232 tariffs in USMCA negotiations. We'll share a selection of the comments we received in each buyer's own words. Dive in with us into the results and findings of our latest Flat-Rolled Steel Survey.

SMU’s Current Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Index ticked up slightly this week, while Future Sentiment fell, according to our latest market survey. Every two weeks, SMU polls thousands of steel-industry executives, asking them to rate their companies’ chances of success today and also three to six months down the road. We use their responses to calculate our proprietary Current and Future Steel Buyers’ Sentiment Indices, measures tracked since 2008.

The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.