Steel Products
SMU Survey: How Soon Before Supply Overtakes Demand?
Written by John Packard
August 9, 2013
In what might be perceived to be a positive for the domestic steel industry, the steel buyers and sellers responding to the latest SMU steel market survey believe the domestic mills have at least 30 days if not longer before the current price cycle is broken. We asked those responding to our online questionnaire if they felt the additional supply being brought back by AK Steel and ThyssenKrupp would impact pricing. As you can see from the bar graph below all market segments believe there will be a return to an over-supply position in the marketplace.
SMU sources are reporting that the AK Steel blast furnace is back to “normal” operations and the mill is in the process of catching up on orders. SMU learned earlier this week that AK expects to catch up on hot rolled orders by the end of August while cold rolled would take until the end of September. Based on information we received from our ThyssenKrupp sources the Alabama facility should have their slab inventories back to normal by the end of August.
This led us to inquire with our respondents as to what point will the current “Rising” market price cycle reverse course and prices begin to falter? We specifically requested during what month will we see mill offers for future delivery reference falling prices. What we found is the majority of our respondents believe prices will not begin to falter until September or October – this means hot rolled deliveries in mid to late October into November and coated products closer to late November or December.
Earlier during the survey process we asked where spot prices for hot rolled benchmark coil would be once we reached September 1st. Here are what our respondents, of which 49 percent were manufacturing companies and 41 percent were distributors, had to say on the subject:
On Tuesday of this week, SMU published our hot rolled range as being $620-$670 per ton.

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Steel Products

Domestic mill shipments rise in June: AISI
US steel shipments increased month over month and year over year in June, according to the latest figures from the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI).

Active rig counts slipped in US, Canada
Drilling activity slowed in the US and Canada last week, according to the latest oil and gas rig count data released by Baker Hughes.

OCTG producers in Canada take aim at Mexico, US, others
Evraz NA and Welded Tube of Canada have lodged an unfair trade complaint against imports of OCTG, including those from USMCA trading partners Mexico and the US.

Final Thoughts
The difference: The spat with Turkey was a big deal for steel. This time, the 50% reciprocal tariff for Brazil – if it goes into effect as threatened on Aug.1 – hits everything from coffee and to pig iron. It seems almost custom-built to inflict as much pain as possible on Brazil.

CRU: US rebar and wire rod prices rise alongside S232 increase
CRU Senior Steel Analyst Alexandra Anderson discusses current market and pricing dynamics for long steel products in the US.