Futures

Hot Rolled Futures Strengthen Amid Further Price Hikes…
Written by Bradley Clark
October 3, 2013
After weeks and months of a sideways market, the recent mill price hike announcements have been the spark the futures market needed to ignite trading activity. Over 8,000 tons have traded the past few days as the potential for the physical market to move higher has squeezed shorts causing them to cover and for speculators to try and pick off the last remaining sharp offers. This combination of short covering and speculating has sent all periods down the curve up by $10-20.
November and December values are approaching $640, Q1 close to $645 and cal 14 to $630. This renewed optimism might need to be taken with a grain of salt as demand follow through has yet to really come back into the market in full force. As tends to happen with futures market, prices have seemingly over shot a bit to the upside as those in the physical market remain cautious prices are set to appreciate very much higher from here. Time will tell, busheling is trading sideways and other raw materials are flat.
Whichever the way the market moves from here is yet to be seen, can the recent price hikes push prices higher, will the lack of improving demand cap how high prices go, will raw materials remain strong going into the end of the year?. These questions will need to be answered before clarity of direction returns. Either way this renewed trading interest in the futures market is a welcome turn of events after such a quiet second half of the summer.
Open interest has decreased by around 2000 lots to 12,788 indicating that some market participants have exited the market.
Bradley Clark
Read more from Bradley ClarkLatest in Futures

HR Futures: Nascent rally in HRC futures settles above 6-week downtrend
The CME Midwest HRC futures market’s response to Trump’s election and subsequent comments about blanket 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico was surprisingly counterintuitive.

HR Futures: Market at crossroads after turbulent run
The market appears to be pausing after a turbulent run. But tension remains just beneath the surface. With net long positioning still elevated, sentiment-driven selling could quickly reignite volatility. Still, supply constraints and limited imports are laying the groundwork for a resilient physical market. This moment of calm feels more like a crossroads than a conclusion.

HR Futures: Traders’ views mixed as market navigates tariffs
A look at the HR futures market.

Market pressures trigger HR futures reversal
Market dynamics are shifting rapidly, with futures pricing diverging from physical fundamentals, creating a complex landscape for steel traders.

HR Futures: Correction in market after big rally
Another eventful week in the physical and financial steel markets is coming to a close, but with a markedly different tone than the last update at the end of February.