Steel Markets

NAFTA Vehicle Production for October
Written by Peter Wright
November 14, 2013
Light vehicle (autos + light trucks) production surged in October, up 13.5 percent, the rolling 3 months production was up by 13.1 percent. Year over year production was up by 8.3 percent in total and the Detroit 3 made up some ground being up 10.1 percent. Light vehicle production has now exceeded the pre-recession level (Figure 1).
The corresponding figures for medium and heavy trucks were October/September up 15.3 percent, rolling 3 months up 4.3 percent and year over year down 0.2 percent.
The dramatic change in the production share of autos within NAFTA continues. The US has been taking share from Mexico since mid 2011 and Canada’s share continues to languish (Figure 2). The production share of light trucks hasn’t changed much in the last four years with the US currently holding 71.6 percent. The trend in production share of medium and heavy trucks has been just as dramatic as for autos with the US surging at Mexico’s expense. Canada is almost out of this race (Figure 3).
Medium and heavy truck production has historically been a good leading indicator of recessions with about an 18 month time horizon. This product peaked in January 2013 but has since been staggering along with little direction. This is probably another symptom of uncertainty in the general economy as Washington procrastinates.
US vehicle sales declined slightly in October at 15.2 million units (annualized) with an equal split between autos and light trucks. This was weaker than expected as the government shutdown weighed on sales during the first half of the month with no rebound in the second half. The October decline was in autos, light truck sales picked up slightly as demand for pickups remained strong. Total vehicle sales were 15.3 million in September and 16.1 million in August. (Source Wards Automotive)

Peter Wright
Read more from Peter WrightLatest in Steel Markets

Worldsteel: Global steel demand flat, but modest rebound forecast for 2026
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) Short Range Outlook for global steel demand predicts that 2025’s steel demand will clock in at the same level as in 2024. In its October report, the Brussels-based association stated that this year’s steel demand will reach ~1,750 million metric tons (mt). The organization forecasts a 1.3% demand rebound in 2026, pushing […]

CRU: China’s indirect steel exports find new destination markets
The boom in China’s direct steel exports has not stopped this year, even with a rise in protectionist measures globally. The increase is driven by...

Great Lakes iron ore cargoes down in September as Cleveland tonnage slips
Iron ore shipments from US Great Lakes ports fell sharply in September, per the latest from the Lake Carriers’ Association (LCA) of Westlake, Ohio.

HVAC equipment shipments down through August
Although total HVAC shipments fell in August, YTD volumes remain relatively strong. Nearly 15 million units were produced in the first eight months of the year, the fourth-highest rate in our 19-year data history.

Sheet market sources slam tariffs for prolonged demand slump
Tariffs are ultimately to blame for stagnant demand in the hot-rolled coil market, domestic market sources tell SMU.