Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 24, 2013
Steel Market Update will publish our second Premium Supplement Newsletter on Monday. Included will be our SMU Key Market Indicators and forecast, September imports by product, port and country and articles related to our most recent steel market analysis not available elsewhere.
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Our next Monthly Newsletter will be published early next week. The Monthly Newsletter packages all of the key events and data from the month of November in an easily digestible format. We do include exclusive articles for just our Monthly members from Peter Wright and me. The newsletter is for those who do not want to read our Executive Newsletter three times per week yet would appreciate our analysis and Keys to Watch for the month of December. This newsletter is intended for the busy executive, smaller companies who cannot yet afford the Executive Newsletter or those just wanting an over-view of the market once per month. It can also be an excellent review for our Executive members who would desire one. The cost is a reasonable $300 per year.
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On December 5th and 6th I will be in New York City attending the AIIS dinner and other industry related events. On the 8th of December I will be in Phoenix speaking to the HARDI wholesalers steel committee.
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John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?
Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.