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    Hot Rolled Futures: A New Year

    Written by Andre Marshall


    Andre Marshall, CEO of Crunchrisk, LLC has the duties of outlining the hot rolled futures and busheling scrap futures markets for our readers (as well as taking a look at the financial markets, iron ore and commodities in general):

    On the March S+P future we closed at 1833, this is up from the 1806 level we had when I last wrote before the holidays. As I mentioned, fear about drastic easing of the easing has passed and we are back to going higher, which we like and promote. It looks like the retail equity buying will not subside anytime soon as long as sentiment is positive, and it appears to be so. Likely target is 1900, and it may not take longer than a few weeks to get there. This, the rally of all rallies – thanks to the printing press – continues to move us ever higher. Headwinds from here amount to concern over whether productivity can really continue to perform, as the record profits have essentially been wrung from the backs of those blessed to have kept their jobs, and the jobs of others ;). Some of the improvement in the employment picture is a sign that that productivity gain is waning, and this will eventually weigh on those corporate profits, but not just yet probably. Support below is still 1775-80, near term resistance is 1840, but it should prove temporary and fleeting.

    Latest in Mexico

    Commerce amends duties on pipe and tube imports

    The US Department of Commerce recently made adjustments to the anti-dumping duties (AD) on certain steel pipe and tube imports after annual administrative reviews, according to notices in the Federal Register. Commerce reviewed the AD order on imports of oil country tubular goods (OCTG) from Mexico and lowered the dumping rate for one company. Tubos de Acero de Mexico received a 1.87% dumping rate for the year ended Oct. 31, 2024. The rate is down notably from 26.1% in the previous year. The all-others cash deposit rate remains set at 44.93%.

    Deacero casts first billet at new Ramos Arizpe mini-mill

    Mexican longs producer Deacero has cast the first billet at its new minimill in Ramos Arizpe, Mexico, moving the Danieli-supplied caster into commissioning. It's a key milestone for Deacero's $600-million Ramos II mini-mill, said Italian plant engineering and equipment provider. "The achievement further strengthens the long-standing collaboration between Deacero and Danieli, and further confirms Danieli’s already-established presence in the Mexican long-products market," the company said in a statement on Nov. 2.

    Commerce lowers Mexico’s dumping rate in CORE case

    The US Department of Commerce has reduced the anti-dumping duty on corrosion-resistant steel (CORE) for some Mexican producers after a court order. On remand from the Court of International Trade (CIT), Commerce agreed that the record did not show that Galvasid SA de CV’s US customers separately negotiated or paid freight or insurance. The agency therefore removed the adjustment and recalculated the margin. As a result, the agency lowered Galvasid’s coated steel dumping rate to 14.54%, from 24.05%. The all-others rate is now 14.29%, down from 17.42%. Ternium’s rate is unchanged at 14.17%.

    Court turns to creditor consortium after AHMSA auction bid falls through

    The leading bidder for bankrupt Mexican steelmaker Altos Hornos de Mexico (AHMSA) failed to provide the required earnest money guarantee to confirm its $1.4 billion bid for the steelmaker and its Minera del Norte (MINOSA) mining assets. The court will now consider selling the assets to a consortium of creditors. After the bankruptcy auction on Sept. 25, the court overseeing the proceedings granted the leading bidder, Construcciones e Ingenierías Electromecánicas SA de CV (CIESA), ten days to provide a bid bond of $56.3 million. The Oct. 13 deadline passed without any prequalified bidders, including CIESA, providing the required amount. In fact, the court said CIESA deposited only 5,000 Mexican pesos (US$271).