• Skip to main content

    Prices

    World Export vs. Domestic HRC Price Spread down $8 per ton

    Written by Brett Linton


    World export prices for hot rolled bands was pegged at $504 per net ton ($556 per metric ton) according to data released by SteelBenchmarker earlier this week. This world hot rolled export price is up $3 per ton compared to the last set of data received about two weeks ago. With an estimated $70 per ton in freight, handling and trader margin added in order to get the steel to ports in the United States, the additional costs puts the world price at approximately $574 per ton CIF USA Port. The latest Steel Market Update hot rolled price average is $670 per ton, unchanged from the previous week but down $5 per ton from two weeks ago. The theoretical spread between the world export price and the SMU US HRC price is now $166 per ton ($96 with freight costs included), $8 per ton less than what we reported two weeks ago and $18 per ton less than 1 month ago.

    The $96 spread represents a significant change from mid-March 2014 when we had a spread of $45 per ton ($115 prior to freight and other costs being added). One year ago the spread was $101 per net ton prior to freight, handling and traders margin which we calculate to average about $70 per ton. So, at this time last year, there was little incentive to buy foreign hot rolled coil.

    Brett Linton

    Read more from Brett Linton

    Latest in Prices

    HR Futures: Basic story remains, but curve shifts

    In my last column, the HRC futures curve was pricing a sizable premium on near-term tightness while still pointing toward eventual normalization. Since then, that basic story has remained intact, but the shape of the curve has shifted meaningfully. Rather than simply moving higher and pushing the peak out by another month, as has largely been the pattern throughout this rally, the curve is now pricing a more pronounced and prolonged period of tightness, while the long end has remained relatively anchored, which previously had also been lifted with the rest of the curve.

    galvalume steel coil

    SMU Survey: Mill willingness to negotiate price at lowest levels since 2021

    The majority of steel buyers responding to our latest market survey reported that mills continue to hold a firm grip on prices. The share of buyers reporting that mills were negotiable fell this week to the lowest rate seen in over five years. Every two weeks, SMU surveys service center and manufacturer buyers asking if mills are negotiable on new spot sheet and plate orders. In this week’s survey, just 3% of respondents said mills were willing to talk price to secure an order (Figure 1). This is down 11 percentage points from our mid-October survey.

    SMU Price Ranges: Sheet and plate up, buyers see strength into ’27

    Sheet and plate prices continued to press higher this week as the current supply squeeze shows no signs of letting up even as contract season winds down and lead times tip into 2027. The historic rally marks a sharp reversal from last year, when the consensus was that prices would drift lower on uneven demand and new capacity. Steel buyers said it remains difficult to find a domestic mill with spot availability in a market that some said is tighter than in 2021, even if prices haven't spiraled as high as they did then. SMU's price assessment for spot hot-rolled (HR) coil stands at...

    Nucor increases spot HR coil by $15/ton

    Nucor said on Monday, Oct. 26, that its consumer spot price (CSP) for hot-rolled (HR) coil will be $1,270 per short ton (st) this week, up $15/st from the prior week. The CSP for HR coil from California Steel Industries (CSI) on the West Coast will be $1,340/st, up $20/st from last week. Nucor continues to offer lead times of three to five weeks, according to its letter to customers. You can track mill price announcements on our website. Steel Market Update (SMU) published a weekly price assessment on Tuesday, Oct. 20, showing HR coil prices averaging $1,290/st, up $10/st from the previous week. We will update our prices on the evening of Tuesday, Oct. 27.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.