Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 1, 2014
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Word from the street (rumor mill) has three companies bidding for the Gallatin Steel mill: CSN out of Brazil, Nucor and Steel Dynamics.
This could be the last chance for CSN to expand their presence in the United States. With consolidation of the Severstal and ThyssenKrupp Steel USA assets combined with the closure of RG Steel and the questions arising from financial issues at Essar Steel Algoma, CSN has to seriously consider their substrate issues.
Steel Dynamics may have interest because the purchase of Severstal Columbus does not address the need for a internal substrate supplier for The Techs.
One of the analysts told us during a conversation that the investor community was disappointed that Nucor didn’t make a charge after any of the Severstal assets. They expect Nucor to make a move and expand. Most of Nucor’s flat rolled steel capacity is located in the south so a Kentucky based mill may assist in their move to expand into more northern business. Besides, a Nucor joint venture service center, Steel Technologies does the pickling for Gallatin. That business could be at risk is the mill is purchase by another mill. Nucor also has an intact cold mill that they purchased from Sparrows Point when RG Steel was dismantled.
Another mill to watch is US Steel. Mario Longhi made it quite clear that the mill had to embrace EAF steelmaking in order to cut costs and survive.
Our understanding is bids for Gallatin are due by the middle of this month.
Stay tuned.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
The timing is just right…Come join us in Atlanta on September 3 & 4.
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?