Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 11, 2014
We are starting to learn that the holdup on the flat rolled dumping suits has been due to the desire by the domestic mills to protect the automotive companies. If suits are filed look for exclusions on I.F. steels and potentially coils wider than 60 inches. We have heard from both mill and non-mill sources that the target date is September 2nd (September 1st being a holiday in the United States). As you already know, attorney Roger Schagrin who represents the steel mills and attorney Lewis Leibowitz are scheduled to debate the issue of foreign imports at our Steel Summit Conference on the morning of September 3rd – the first day of our conference.
There will be a bumper crop in the United States this year and that will have a ripple effect for the steel industry. Crop prices may go lower, which would be good for the consumer, but the farmers would benefit from the larger crops generating more cash. The large crops will mean more storage facilities, rail cars to move grain and corn and the cash should be there for more tractors, etc. for 2015.
There is much going on in the market right now. It’s quite exciting time to be writing about the industry. It may not be so much fun to be a large buyer negotiating 2015 contracts with all of these changes and questions sitting over us. Negotiations are just beginning and we will be curious to see what happens – especially in the Southeast with AM/NS Calvert taking control of the ThyssenKrupp contract book. We are also interested to see if customers were satisfied with the Platts price adjustments vs. that of CRU. With all of the consolidation in the Southeast happening at the same time as 2015 negotiations will make for an interesting Fall.
Stay tuned and, as always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
September 3 & 4 will be a good time to be in Atlanta…
John Packard
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I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
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I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?