Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
November 21, 2014
We understand from press reports in the Baltimore, Maryland area that the new owners of Sparrows Point will announce on Monday, November 24th when the “L” blast furnace will be demolished. It is expected that the furnace, which is one of the tallest structures for miles around, will be taken down sometime in December. The star atop the furnace which has been lit at Christmas time for many years will most likely not make it to Christmas eve 2014…
A note about our publishing schedule for this week. Thursday is Thanksgiving here in the United States and SMU will not publish a newsletter on Thursday evening. We will publish on Tuesday and next Sunday as usual. Our offices will be open Monday through Wednesday, closed on Thursday and then open on Friday. I expect that I will be out of the office traveling on both Wednesday and Friday of this week. I will be available by email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We spent some time in tonight’s newsletter working with our interactive graphics which are available to our Executive, Premium and to a limited degree, our free trial members. We encourage our members to take the time to locate and then use our interactive graphics. They can be quite helpful when you are working on a project or just want to know, for example, when was the last time hot rolled coil was at $600 per ton (or below). The answer is June 18, 2013 and it took me less than 10 seconds to get that answer for you.
Interesting note from the survey last week, the percentage of service centers reporting they were lowering prices exceeded the percentage of manufacturing companies. Usually the manufacturing companies are a little harder on the service centers. Premium members can find the Power Point under the Analysis tab (Survey Results – Latest Survey Results).
We have had a number of Executive level members who have inquired about upgrading to Premium. We also have had similar requests from individuals who are on Corporate memberships. We will work with you so that you can upgrade without breaking the bank. Contact our office at 800-432-3475 or by email: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com with any questions you might have.
Please don’t forget to put our 2015 Steel Summit Conference in your budgets for next year. September 1 & 2, 2015 in Atlanta. Next year we will be the week prior to Labor Day Weekend. I am already working on speakers and expect that we will have an excellent program.
You may also be interested in sponsoring, having a booth or working with SMU to do something “different” which is what we are all about. If you have ideas give me a call. I will be reaching out in the coming weeks with some ideas we have where other companies might help (and benefit) us to make our 5th Steel Summit Conference something special for everyone. You can reach me at 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update. Please tell your friends, customers and suppliers about us. We want to grow and who knows us better than you, our customers.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.