Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
December 5, 2014
Part of my talk at the 2014 HARDI conference was regarding galvanized imports which reached 325,000 net tons in October and appear will be approximately 300,000 tons when the November Census Data numbers are released later this month. To put this into perspective, at this point last year the U.S. received 150,000 net tons and the average for 2013 was closer to 175,000 tons per month. The 300,000 ton level is quite high when you consider that The Techs three galvanizing lines when running full are about 80,000 tons per month. It takes quite a few galvanizing lines to equal 300,000 tons.
This is what galvanized imports look like over the past few years. The domestic mills have to be concerned. Is this one of the reasons why ArcelorMittal decided to close their number 2 galvanizing line at Indiana Harbor West?
Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research (ITR) is the HARDI economist with an exceptional record of accuracy. So, it was interesting to hear him forecasting a “Great Recession” to hit the world by 2030. I will write more about this in the days to come.He did mention that baby boomers will come out of this alright (end of our rope), Gen-X will be the worst hurt and Millennials could do very well if they do things ahead of time to prepare.
Over the short term ITR is forecasting a slight slowdown during the first 6 months 2015 before picking up during the second half of the year. Mr. Beaulieu will speak again tomorrow so I hope to write more on his comments on Tuesday evening.
I am working on trying to get Mr. Beaulieu to speak at our Steel Summit Conference in Atlanta on September 1-2, 2015. Mark your calendars, put the money in your budgets as we believe we will produce a conference even better than what we did earlier this year.
I am in San Antonio where I spoke to the HARDI wholesalers, manufacturing companies associated with HARDI and others interested in galvanized steel. Steel Market Update was spoofed by the speaker just before I went on. The speakers had been asked to keep our presentations free of advertising for our companies. So, Tim Quinn of Majestic Steel was speaking about the consolidation of the steel industry and after he began his talk he removed his jacket. He then mentioned to the group that the speakers had been asked to forgo “shameless self-promotion.” He then proceeded to turn around so that the assembled crowd could see the Steel Market Update name across the back of his shirt. A good laugh was had by all.
Our training workshops were mentioned a number of times during the HARDI conference. There are a number of companies here who have had employees attend our Steel 101 workshops and are doing very well within their company. We encourage anyone who would like to learn more about how steel is made, rolled, qualities produced, bought and sold and market influences that affect pricing and sales. Our next workshop is coming up in January. It will be held outside of Charleston, SC on January 20 & 21, 2015. A tour of Nucor Berkeley is part of our program. You can find out more on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com.
I will be in San Antonio through Tuesday of this week returning to the office for one day (Wednesday) before leaving to conduct our special sales training workshop at a service center in Louisiana.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?