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    Analysis

    April 23, 2015

    New Home Sales Tumble in March

    Written by Sandy Williams

    New home sales fell 11.4 percent in March for the biggest decline since July 2013. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 481,000 below the forecast of 515,000. Analysts, however, say the drop is not as worrisome as it looks, coming off a strong revised February sales pace of 543,000 from a previously reported 539,000. Home sales have been erratic on a monthly basis but still exceed 2014 levels.

    Home prices fell slightly in March with the median home price of $277,400 down 1.7 percent from a year ago. The average sales price was $343,300.

    Sandy Williams

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    Imports fall back slightly in September, slide further in October

    Final import data for September from the US Commerce Department shows a slight decline from August’s 15-month high. And October’s license count suggests another month-on-month (m/m) decline in imports. September imports of 2,416,717 short tons (st) were down just 1% from 2,434,108 st in August, a 15-month high. October license data show a steeper 8% m/m fall to 2,214,730 st (Figure 1, left). August appears to have been the peak for the recovery in imports, which has been ongoing since February of this year, when we saw some of the lowest levels since 2020.

    Steel exports fall in September to lowest rate of the year

    US steel exports eased 3% from August to September, marking the third consecutive monthly decline following June’s 17-month high, according to recently released US Department of Commerce figures. Exports have been historically low since early 2025 and remain weak compared to volumes seen in prior years. In September, 615,000 short tons (st) of steel were shipped outside of the country, 2% below the average monthly export rate of the past twelve months. September trade was 3% higher than the same month of 2025, 19% lower than September 2024, 21% lower than September 2023, and 15% lower than September 2022. For context, exports fell to a five-year low of 469,000 st in December and reached a near-five-year high of 914,000 st in May 2023.

    Ferrous scrap market chatter this month

    Every month, SMU polls participants in the ferrous scrap market on a variety of topics, including prices. This month's survey results landed just as the November scrap market was starting to settle. Preliminary results show scrap prices rose across the board for all the products SMU tracks. Final prices will be in SMU later this week. As the final numbers come in, we'd like to share where survey respondents thought prices would be on busheling, shredded, and HMS scrap, as well as where they see prices heading over the next 60 days.

    November scrap prices rise as market nears settle

    November scrap procurement has commenced in the US with buyers divided on the price increases from the previous month. Several mills reportedly sought a rise of $20 per gross ton (gt) while others saw $30/gt as the number. The $30/gt price tag mainly applies to the obsolete grades, like shredded, P&S and #1 HMS, with prime grades pulling up the rear at $20. SMU spoke to a Chicago-based source who said that market was up $30/gt and 20/gt on shredded and busheling, respectively. He also mentioned the integrated mills in this district are after heavier grades like P&S and railroad grades, like wheels. These grades have been in short supply since last summer. Our source believes they commanded prices up $30/gt while busheling was at plus $20.