SMU Data and Models
July Steel Data at a Glance
Written by John Packard
August 2, 2015
Flat rolled steel prices, and the momentum associated with steel price movement, have been stuck for quite some time as you can see by our SMU Price Momentum at the top of the table below. As a result, our benchmark hot rolled price average is $3 per ton higher than what we reported at the end of June and $6 per ton higher than that of May.
As you can see, the other two indexes watched closely by the steel community (CRU and Platts) were within one dollar ($1) of the SMU average for the month.
You can also see by our weekly numbers that hot rolled coil prices have been slipping as of late. This is due to an expansion of the range. We are expecting the domestic steel mills to file antidumping and countervailing duty cases on hot rolled during the month of August. We will see if the combination of HR, CR and coated trade cases begins to impact pricing.
SMU Steel Buyers Sentiment Index 3 month moving average (3MMA) has been improving. We believe this is due to a strengthening of the commercial construction sector and would be even better if the energy markets were to rebound.
Zinc and aluminum prices are both lower as of the end of the month. Iron ore prices are also down.
MSCI months on hand (flat rolled) dropped to 2.4 months as of the end of June. However, SMU Service Center Apparent Inventory Excess was calculated to be 617,000 net tons (our forecast is calling for tonnage to drop significantly over the next two months – if you want to learn more inquire about becoming a Premium level subscriber to SMU).
Imports are down but are still well above the 3.0 million net ton mark. Apparent steel supply continued to drop.
John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in SMU Data and Models
August service center shipments and inventories report
US service centers flat-rolled steel supply in August declined month-over-month (m/m) and year-over-year (y/y), according to SMU data.
Apparent steel supply remains elevated in July
Apparent supply totaled 8.88 million short tons (st) in July, down 38,000 st from June and 6% higher than the same month last year
HRC vs. prime scrap spread narrows slightly
The price spread between prime scrap and hot-rolled coil (HRC) narrowed by a hair this month, according to SMU’s most recent pricing data.
SMU Scrap Survey: Current Sentiment rises as Future Sentiment falls
SMU’s current Scrap sentiment index increased this month while future sentiment declined, according to our latest ferrous scrap survey data.
SMU scrap market survey results now available
SMU’s September ferrous scrap market survey results are now available on our website to all premium members.