Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 13, 2016
After reviewing the results of last week’s flat rolled market analysis (our survey) I continue to be optimistic that business conditions will continue to improve as 2016 progresses. We broke the negative trend in our Sentiment Index, we are seeing more optimistic results from manufacturing as they look out three to six months into the future and the erosion of prices has stopped.
I do agree with Spencer Johnson in tonight’s HRC Futures article. The domestic steel mills have to remain reasonably competitive with foreign steel or they will do nothing more than invite domestic buyers to return to foreign products. The countries may be different but the results for the domestic mills will be the same.
A note that I will be in Mississippi early next week as we conduct another one of our Steel 101 workshops. We will be touring the SDI Columbus steel mill and we are looking forward to working with our friends at SDI and at the Columbus facility once again. We hope to be able to announce our next Steel 101 workshop in the coming days. Later this year (probably October) we will host our first workshop at the brand new Big River Steel mill in Arkansas.
I want to remind everyone to take a few minutes to register for our Leadership Summit Conference in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida. The dates are March 7-9th and our exceptional program can be found on our website. If you have any questions please do not hesitate to contact me at 800-432-3475 or by email: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
For those attending ASHRAE I will be attending the Orlando, Florida show for at least the opening day.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
We’ve talked about tariffs ad nauseam for much of the year. And I’m afraid this topic isn’t going away anytime soon. There’s a feeling that the tariff “can” will just be kicked down the road again and again, and again.

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.