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    Final Thoughts

    Final Thoughts

    Written by Michael Cowden


    We’ve been writing a lot about steel prices lately and what might happen with President Trump’s trade and tariff policy. I’d like to take a little break from that today. Instead, I’ll focus on something I always find exciting and inspiring – namely, new mills.

    I was in Arkansas last week for the grand opening of Hybar, the new rebar mill CEO David Stickler and his team have built in the town of Osceola. These days, that part of the world has become a steelmaking hub. And it arguably rivals more established industrial areas like Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Chicago.

    Michael Cowden

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    Final Thoughts: Longer waits, higher stakes

    We’re in rarefied air for the US domestic steel industry. Mill lead times are approaching or even exceeding (in the case of plate) records set in 2021. Prices, meanwhile, are on an epic run—13 months and counting. Availability, not price, is the largest hurdle buyers are facing. And market participants think the shortage could stay around for a while. Incoming imports and mills catching up after fall maintenance could ease the squeeze. Even so, most sources do not expect meaningful relief until 2027.

    Final Thoughts: Is the steel market now tighter than in 2021?

    "Now, the problem is no longer the price. The problem is having access to steel." That would have made a good lead. But I can’t take credit for it. Those (very quotable) words are from Cleveland-Cliffs Chairman and CEO Lourenco Goncalves during the steelmaker’s quarterly earnings conference call on Monday. For a while, I thought the shortages we'd been hearing about might be mostly a problem for small- and mid-sized buyers. But we’re seeing even some of the biggest steel buyers talking openly about supply problems.