Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 24, 2016
On Tuesday evening we published an article regarding the HARDI wholesaler steel conference call. During the call one of the wholesalers referred to Kloeckner Metals Corporation as one of the service centers they were having competitive issues with. An executive with Kloeckner saw our article and responded to the comment made and quoted in our article: “As Kloeckner Metals Corporation was specifically mentioned in this article I feel compelled to comment. Kloeckner Metals Corporation is fully supporting all announced mill increases in the transactional (spot) market contrary to the comment by an unidentified wholesaler.”
For those of you expecting the preliminary determination of antidumping (AD) on cold rolled steel today be advised that the announcement has been moved out four business days. Here is our understanding as of today:
– Because of the snow on January 23 and 24, Commerce added four business days to all deadlines in all cases pending before the Department (AD/CVD, foreign trade zone proceedings and others).
– The cold-rolled determination is now due February 29 (four business days after the 23d), and the hot-rolled determination is due March 14 (four business days after the announced date of March 8).
– The determinations will be announced the following business day in each case (March 1 and March 15, respectively).
I have been getting inquiries lately regarding our Steel Sales Training Program which, at this point in time, is a custom workshop aimed at distributors in the steel space. If your company has some interest – whether in a custom program developed specifically for your company or, you might only have one to a few people that you feel would benefit from such a program, please let me know. We have been looking at this workshop as one that we could produce on a more generalized basis for a mixed audience. You can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?