Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 15, 2016
This week’s newsletters may seem a little “muted” compared to the past, this is due to my right hand man – Brett Linton – being on vacation. Brett is the one responsible for keeping track of all of the data points and graphics in both the newsletter and website. He is also responsible for crunching many of the data points we collect out of our surveys and other proprietary products we have. Brett will be back next weekend so please bear with us as we push on without his talents adding the explanation points to our articles.
There will be a larger than normal Premium supplemental issue of our newsletter first thing tomorrow morning. The issue will include extra analysis of the service center inventories and shipment data including our Apparent Excess forecast.
We will begin our next flat rolled steel survey first thing in the morning as well. If you receive an invitation to participate please take a few moments to click on the button to go to our questionnaire.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.
Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.
Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.
Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.
Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.