Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
April 18, 2016
We should see the pace of the price increases slow down as most mills are getting the announced minimum price levels from their spot buyers ($25.00-$26.00/cwt HR, $35.00/cwt cold rolled and coated). The market needs a couple of weeks to absorb the increases and push them down to the end users and resale spot customers.
I spoke with an HVAC wholesaler this afternoon about their ability to collect price increases from their mechanical contractor customers. The reason why I reached out to a wholesaler is due to my relationship with the group through my HARDI membership. HVAC mechanical contractors have become the bottom of the spot market over the years (due to too many companies supplying the same products to the industry). What the wholesaler told me today was, “We haven’t seen anything like this in at least four years. It’s not a runaway train like it has been in the past but, we are getting our number.”
When pressed the wholesaler told me they were now selling off replacement costs plus their normal margins. If customers aren’t willing to buy they are waiting them out or allowing their competition to blow off inventory that would have been worth more in the coming days and weeks.
A note about our Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop. The workshop is still a month away but we are within one or two people from selling out the space available. The roster is excellent and we are looking forward to working with our friends at North Star Bluescope Steel. Dates for the workshop are May 17-18th. Details can be found on our website.
The next Steel 101 workshop will be a special edition as it will be held in Memphis, Tennessee and include what we think will be a once in a lifetime tour of Big River Steel. We will have more details on this workshop over the next few weeks. We have already received reservations from companies for this workshop. We expect it will be very popular.
Speaking of popular, our 6th Steel Summit Conference is gaining traction with only 131 days to go. Registration is open and we recommend booking as early as possible. You can also book through our office: 800-432-3475. Kick-off begins on Monday afternoon, August 29th and ends at 4 PM August 31st. Details are on our website.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?