Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 18, 2016
I saw a headline in another steel periodical stating that the USS/POSCO price increase was a reaction to the US DOC Final Determination on cold rolled. That doesn’t make sense to me. My understanding is UPI was behind in its pricing and needed to catch up. The new pricing is not outrageous when compared to the prices being asked by the mills east of the Rocky Mountains.
One of our sources advised us that we should expect California Steel (CSI) to come out with prices either on Friday but more likely on Monday since they have sales meetings every Monday.
It will be interesting to watch how quickly the two mills sell out of their August production. With limited foreign being offered I would expect them to both sell out within a few working days.
It has been a hectic travel week due to the Steel 101 workshop we conducted in Sylvania, Ohio. With the furnace accident at North Star BlueScope this was the first time we conducted a workshop without a mill tour since our very first workshop in Houston, Texas a number of years ago. The last minute change created a challenge for the instructors and our attendees as we had to adjust the agenda and we added a new piece to the program to accommodate the time lost that would have been spent on the tour.
I want to thank the attendees who participated in the program and I remind them that SMU is now an asset you can use when you have a question or want a second opinion (however, you have to buy, sell and service your customers without our help – but, I think you are up to the challenge).
Our next Steel 101 workshop already has a large number of people registered as the workshop will be held in Memphis, Tennessee and will include a tour of the Big River Steel facility across the border in Arkansas. We are looking forward to an entertaining program and an exception group of attendees. The workshop will be held in November 2016 and we will have more details in the coming days. If you have any questions feel free to shoot us a note: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com or give us a call: 800-432-3475.
Also booking very well is our Steel Summit Conference which will be held in Atlanta on August 29-31st. I traded emails with one of the major car manufacturers who told us they intend on bringing a large group this year. Other companies are doing the same thing – it seems we have a lot more companies who are bringing anywhere from two to six people. You can find information about the program, speakers, costs, location and registration on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com or feel free to contact our office at 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.