Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 19, 2016
I got a note from Eddie Lehner, the CEO of Ryerson who attended our Steel Summit Conference for the first time this year. He dropped me a note today about our conference, “The SMU Conference is flat out worth attending. An unusual combination of candor, depth and subject matter relevance throughout the steel value chain makes this conference unique as it stays true to substance and diversity of opinion. The location and facilities were about as good as it gets as well. We’ll be at the SMU conference next year.” Thank you for the kind words. We are already working on next year’s conference in the hope we can outdo ourselves once again. Mark your calendars for August 28-30, 2017 in Atlanta, Georgia.
The first ENFORCE Act complaint has been filed by Wheatland Tube. What is interesting (or will be interesting) is what happens from here. With most trade cases there is transparency in the proceedings. There are no such protections set up for the ENFORCE Act. I am quite sure the domestic mills will be watching and waiting to see if the Wheatland Tube complaint is successful.
Arkansas looks like it will be the biggest steel producing state as Big River Steel comes online and now Nucor is building a new cold mill which will be able to produce advanced high strength steels and motor lamination steels.
One of the conversion mills told me today, “We had good bookings again. Customers settled down and felt the price was fair and shot some orders over. Demand is still good [coated products]. Inventories are higher than we would like to see but not high relative to history or overall demand.” We were told the “same mills driving numbers down.”
We are in the middle of our mid-September flat rolled steel market trends survey. If you received an invitation but haven’t had time to click on the button to respond please take a few minutes to do so. We will close out the survey on Thursday so our analysis is available to our Premium level members by Friday afternoon.
We are literally down to having one (maybe two) seats left for our next Steel 101 workshop which is being held in Memphis, Tennessee on November 15-16 with a tour of Big River Steel as part of the workshop. Details can be found on our website or you can contact our office at: 800-432-3475.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.

Final Thoughts
Nearly 50% of respondents to our latest survey thought hot-rolled coil prices have already peaked. And where will those prices be two months from now? Responses were decidedly split on that question.