Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
January 18, 2017
The Chinese represent only 7 percent of the total plate imports into the United States. The CTL plate dumping/CVD suits will now focus on the countries that represented 66 percent of the plate imports: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. The Final Determination on these countries is due on March 30th.
The US Steel Section 337 complaint against China continues with a review of the dismissal of the antitrust claim coming up. The Commission will determine whether to conduct oral argument and announce a decision by no later than February 24, 2017. Oral argument, if granted, will be held on March 14, 2017.
The first hearing on the trade secret segment of the complaint will commence on April 25th followed by a second hearing on price fixing and false designation on July 31st.
The initial determination is due on Thursday, November 1, 201`7 and completion of the investigation should be done by March 2, 2018.
USS/POSCO announced a price increase of $40 per ton on HRP&O, cold rolled and galvanized steel.The mill is accepting orders for the month of March 2017.
A reminder that I will be out of the office Monday-Wednesday next week as we conduct our Steel 101 workshop in Huntsville, Alabama.
The next Steel 101 workshop will be in Toledo, Ohio on April 11th and 12th. Included with this workshop will be a tour of the North Star Bluescope steel mill.
As always your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.