Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
May 26, 2017
For our USA customers welcome back from the Memorial Day Holiday weekend.
Our scrap sources are advising us that as of today they are not aware of any cancellations of existing ferrous scrap orders by the domestic steel mills. This expectation is for a “soft sideways” market, meaning prices would remain the same, although there are some who think the South/Southeast may be down slightly due to better scrap flows due to some large demolition jobs in the South as well as what impact the foreign scrap bought by Nucor will have on supply. We will continue to watch the scrap markets closely and will report over the weekend or early next week once pricing comes into focus.
Over the next few days Steel Market Update (SMU) will be announcing the filling of the final few holes in our SMU Steel Summit Conference agenda. We will be announcing a major keynote speaker who will be speaking right after lunch on Wednesday, August 30th. We will also be announcing the filling of our panel about attracting young people into the steel and manufacturing industries. In typical SMU fashion, that panel will be made up of highly motivated young executives who have impressive resumes and some interesting perspectives they want to share with the industry.
You will want to make your flight arrangements out of Atlanta for 5 PM or later (the conference center is 10 minutes from the ATL airport and there is no traffic to slow down your arrival).
The 2017 SMU Steel Summit Conference will have the strongest program, most entertaining from top to bottom, educational for all that attend (actionable intelligence) and the best networking for a steel/manufacturing event in North America. Come join the other 350+ manufacturing & steel executives who have already registered (with 90 days to go – we are expecting 500+) by going to www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel-summit or by contacting any of our offices: 800-432-3475/772-932-7538/706-216-2140 or info@SteelMarketUpdate.com.
We will publish a new Premium newsletter tomorrow (Wednesday). Included with be our Key Market Indicators (KMI) which continues to post positive/optimistic results.
Our next flat rolled steel market trends analysis will be sent out next Monday, June 5th.
June 5th is also the first day for Tim Triplett at Steel Market Update. You will be able to reach Tim next week on his new email: Tim@SteelMarketUpdate.com
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
We just wrapped another Steel 101 Workshop, where you take what you learned in the classroom into the steel mill.
Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.