Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
July 14, 2017
I am working on an article regarding foreign steel offers, which have almost dried up completely due to the threats/unknowns associated with the Section 232 investigation. There have been a number of months where foreign steel imports have exceeded 3.5 million tons. We are hearing that these months will soon be behind us – although my gut tells me it might be October before we see any radical change in the numbers. The U.S. Department of Commerce will release new import license data on Tuesday evening. We will be on top of the numbers as we work to better understand both the short- and long-term consequences associated with change and with uncertainty.
I was reading an article about India and its steel industry earlier today. It was amazing in light of what is going on around the world regarding steel overcapacity. The article was about how India was looking to become the second largest steel producing nation within the next few years and by 2020-2025 they expect to have 300 million metric tons (330 million net tons) of capacity. (The Business Today article attributes the forecast to Dr. Venugapalan of Tata Steel). Is the world doomed to learn the errors of the Chinese over and over again? The article I was reading also said that the country has enough iron ore supplies to support that 300 million metric tons for 35 years.
I also read a piece in The Hill written by Daniel Pearson about how foolish the Chinese must feel transferring their wealth with every ton of steel they export to the rest of the world.
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I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?