Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
August 11, 2017
I was advised late on Friday afternoon that we should expect a Nucor price increase early next week. With scrap prices firming $10 to $30 per ton our expectation is for the increase to be $25-$30 per ton. Then the question will be will the industry support another increase after tepid (at best) support for the last increase made in July. On July 19, Nucor advised their flat rolled customers of their intention to take prices up by $25 per ton. The other mills followed with similar increase announcements except NLMK USA, which asked for $40 per ton (and UPI on the West Coast asked for $50 per ton).
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The following steel mills are registered to attend this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference at the end of this month: ArcelorMittal Mexico, ArcelorMittal Dofasco, ArcelorMittal/Nippon Sumitomo Calvert, Ternium USA, Ternium Mexico, NLMK USA, Nucor, Nucor Mexico, Nucor Canada, Kandil Steel (Egypt), California Steel Industries, AK Steel, CSN USA, North Star BlueScope, Steel Dynamics Inc., The Techs, U.S. Steel, Worthington Industries, USS/POSCO, Big River Steel, SSAB Americas, Algoma, AHMSA, Stelco. Besides these mills, also attending will be many international trading companies with affiliations with steel mills such as Tata, ThyssenKrupp, Uttam, Severstal and many Japanese companies (many represent Wheeling Nisshin).
If your supplier is not listed, you are welcome to suggest to them that they may want to attend. If you are unsure if your supplier is registered and you are already registered, you can use the SMU Events App to search for their company or the individual’s name.
Just two weeks to go before the start of our 7th SMU Steel Summit Conference. We are working hard to make sure this year’s conference is the most entertaining and educational event yet. We have a great group of speakers, a new look and a record number of manufacturing and steel executives already registered to attend.
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John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?
Final Thoughts
With higher tariff rates on steel and aluminum set to go into effect on Wednesday, June 4, a new round of chaos across the supply chain is likely in store. Expect a significant impact on manufacturers and metal fabricators. But even before the latest round of Trump-tariff whiplash on Friday evening, there was a lot of interesting data coming out of SMU's steel-market survey.