Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 18, 2017
There is a wide variance between what the MSCI reported for flat rolled inventories this week and what Steel Market Update reported on Sunday. As we look at our numbers, the mega service centers tended to carry less inventories (based on months of supply, not in total tons) than the medium and smaller distributors that are included in our index. We continue to add service centers and to refine our data and data collection. If you are interested in participating in our index, you can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
This evening, the U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data results through Sept. 19, and the licenses picked up over the past seven days. The new numbers have foreign steel imports moving toward another 3 million net ton month. We will have a full break-out of the report in Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update.
I was discussing imports during the HARDI steel conference call earlier today. So, I want to let those interested in galvanized imports know that September is trending toward a 250,000+ net ton month. Hot rolled is trending toward 150,000+ net tons. Slabs licenses have picked up and are trending toward 700,000 net tons.
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John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?