Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
September 18, 2017
There is a wide variance between what the MSCI reported for flat rolled inventories this week and what Steel Market Update reported on Sunday. As we look at our numbers, the mega service centers tended to carry less inventories (based on months of supply, not in total tons) than the medium and smaller distributors that are included in our index. We continue to add service centers and to refine our data and data collection. If you are interested in participating in our index, you can reach me at: John@SteelMarketUpdate.com
This evening, the U.S. Department of Commerce released new license data results through Sept. 19, and the licenses picked up over the past seven days. The new numbers have foreign steel imports moving toward another 3 million net ton month. We will have a full break-out of the report in Thursday’s issue of Steel Market Update.
I was discussing imports during the HARDI steel conference call earlier today. So, I want to let those interested in galvanized imports know that September is trending toward a 250,000+ net ton month. Hot rolled is trending toward 150,000+ net tons. Slabs licenses have picked up and are trending toward 700,000 net tons.
If you are ever having any issues with a SMU product (newsletter, workshop, conference) and would like to get our attention, the best email address to use is: info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. That email address goes to multiple people within our organization (including myself). This is an easy way to make sure your issue is resolved as quickly and effortlessly as possible.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher

John Packard
Read more from John PackardLatest in Final Thoughts

Final Thoughts
Can technology help with pig iron and DRI/HBI tariffs?

Final Thoughts
Tariff-related noise aside, there is one basic factor keeping buyers on the sidelines. Despite recent declines, HR prices remain at historically high levels. And there is no obvious support to keep them there.

Final Thoughts
United Airlines raised eyebrows earlier this month when it provided two forecasts for 2025 – one assuming a relatively stable economy and another assuming a recession. The reason? Uncertainty around the impact of President Trump’s policy shocks on the broader economy. And it sometimes feels like we’re seeing a battle between those two narratives (stable vs recession) play out within in the pages of this newsletter.

Final Thoughts
Despite some scary headlines lately (especially about Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell) this is not October 2008 (financial crisis) or March 2020 (onset of the pandemic). But it sure seems like we’ve taken a relatively strong economy and poured a thick sauce of uncertainty over it.

Final Thoughts
I put some of our survey data through ChatGpt, with interesting results.