Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
October 13, 2017
I had a whirlwind weekend having traveled to Cleveland to see family and to attend MidWest Materials’ 65th anniversary. Brian Robbins and his crew did a great job paying homage to their past and current employees. The company is much different today than it was in 1952 when it started. I have a feeling it will be quite different again in just a few years’ time as the pace of change quickens and companies either innovate or struggle to survive.
SMU recently began writing a series of articles about ethics–something that has concerned me during my active sales career and after I began writing Steel Market Update. Almost on cue comes Kobe Steel, which has admitted falsifying data to 500 customers. The exact depth of the deception is not yet known. But the parts went into airplanes, bullet trains and automobiles…. Now, because of the actions of one company on the other side of the world, people are asking questions about products they buy from steel mills everywhere.
I was asked a question during our Steel 101 workshop in Indiana–should we be concerned if the tests done by the mills are accurate? My response then was that no mill would risk their reputation and their ability to look their customers in the face by falsifying test results or certifications. Now there is Kobe Steel….
Our Jan. 24-25, 2018, Steel 101: Introduction to Steel Making & Market Fundamentals workshop is beginning to fill up. We are now about one-third full, so we encourage anyone interested in attending to do so. If you have questions, please feel free to reach out to my office. I can be reached at 800-432-3475. We will tour the SSAB Mobile minimill as part of the January workshop.
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?