Final Thoughts
Final Thoughts
Written by John Packard
February 12, 2018
First, tomorrow (Wednesday) is Valentine’s Day.
The heat is turning up on Section 232 discussions as trade groups, individual businesses and congressmen lean in and provide their opinions to President Trump. He still sounds like he is going to do something “disruptive,” but we just don’t know for sure.
As you can see from tonight’s issue, we are covering the subject on as many fronts and from as many angles as possible. We will continue to do so.
The other subject that we must all watch carefully is NAFTA and the negotiations between the United States, Canada and Mexico. Depending on the day, there seems to be one party complaining about the actions or tactics of another. We are watching the negotiations on a daily basis.
We are also working on the transportation issues that are impacting a large swath of the industry catching some end-users unprepared for the “new normal” when it comes to just-in-time deliveries. Tim Triplett is working on the subject, and it will also be one that gets discussed at this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference at the end of August.
We now have approximately 3-4 spots left in our March 28-29, 2018, Steel 101 workshop, which will be held in Merrillville, Ind. NLMK USA Portage will host our group as we tour their EAF steel mill. We have been there a couple of times and they never fail to thrill our attendees. You can find details on our website: www.SteelMarketUpdate.com/events/steel101 or you can contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com with any questions you might have.
By the way, if your company has already registered someone to attend this year’s SMU Steel Summit Conference and you wish to add more people (one at a time), please contact us at info@SteelMarketUpdate.com and we can provide a code to ensure that you are charged the correct amount on the website. You are also welcome to contact our offices at 772-032-7538 and we can take your payment over the phone or arrange to send you an invoice.
I will be at the Port of Tampa Steel Conference next week. If you are attending the conference, please look for me in the crowd.
I will be publishing our full service center inventories report tomorrow morning (first to those who participated, then on Thursday to our Executive and Premium level members).
As always, your business is truly appreciated by all of us here at Steel Market Update.
John Packard, Publisher
John Packard
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Final Thoughts
Steel equities and steel futures fell hard after news broke earlier this week that the US and Mexico might reach an agreement that would result in the 50% Section 232 tariff coming off Mexican steel. The sharp declines didn’t make much sense, especially if, as some reports indicate, Mexico might agree to a fixed quota. They didn't make sense even if steel flows between the US and Mexico remain unchanged.
Final Thoughts
Even before the news about Mexico, I didn’t want to overstate the magnitude of the change in momentum. As far as we could tell, there hadn’t been a frenzy of new ordering following President Trump’s announcement of 50% Section 232 tariffs. But higher tariffs had unquestionably raised prices for imports, which typically provide the floor for domestic pricing. We’d heard, for example, that prices below $800 per short ton for hot-rolled (HR) coil were gone from the domestic market – even for larger buyers.
Final Thoughts
I want to draw your attention to SMU’s monthly scrap market survey. It’s a premium feature that complements our long-running steel market survey. We’ve been running our scrap survey since late January. And over just that short time, it’s become a valuable way not only for us to assess where scrap prices might go but also to quantify some of the “fuzzy” indicators - like sentiment and flows - that help to put the price in context.
Final Thoughts
I think there is an obvious case for sheet and plate prices going higher from here. That’s because, on a very basic level, the floor for flat-rolled steel prices, which is typically provided by imports, is now significantly higher than it was a week ago.
Final Thoughts
We're about to hit 50% Section 232 steel tariffs. What could happen?